Ismea: milk production on the rise. Consumption: less fresh and more yoghurt

The year 2024 is expected to end with a milk production of more than 13 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3%, despite weather-related problems especially in the summer months when the heat reduces production. However, the increase in supply did not dampen farmgate prices, which are "still sustained". The sentiment of processing industry operators is also very positive, convinced of new records in terms of exports and "especially with reference to sales expectations in the last months of the year in correspondence with the Christmas holidays and an increase in tourist flows". These are the snapshot and prospects of the dairy sector outlined by a report by Ismea Mercati that has just been published.

According to the Institute of Services for the Agricultural Food Market, in fact, the average farmgate price in Italy, "after the substantial stability in the first part of the year, showed a new upward thrust - reaching in October 55.3 euros/100 litres (excluding VAT, without premiums) - sustained by the quotations of the main traditional cheeses". In Europe, production is also growing slightly thanks to "the positive trend in some of the main producers" (France +1.5%, Poland +3.7%, Spain +1.7%).

The positive trend continues for Grana Padano - 'the leading product on the national market in view of the large harvesting basin,' argues Ismea - 'whose prices for the minor seasoning reached the record price of EUR 10.32/kg in November (+18% compared to a year ago), thanks above all to the good performance of foreign demand.

Rising sharply, 'also in the wake of EU dynamics, the price of burro arrived in November at close to 8 euro/kg with a variation of over 55% compared to last year'.

With regard to the domestic market, analysed in collaboration with NielsenIq, in the first nine months of 2024 "the expenditure of Italian households on milk and dairy products decreased overall by 1.2%, as a consequence partly of the fall in prices of the main references, partly of a contraction in volumes (-0.6%)". Thestrongest drop continues to be recorded for fresh milk (-7% in volume), a phenomenon that has been going on for some time now, while yoghurt (+3.8% in volume) and cheeses, especially fresh (+1.6% with prices down 2.3%), show a positive purchasing dynamic. Hard cheeses, on the other hand, are the only ones still showing a slight price increase (+0.3%) and stable consumption (-0.2%).