Istat confirms: inflation jumped to 4.2 per cent in September
Price rises in Italia are accelerating, with sharp increases in the cost of gas, petrol and fresh produce, which are also affecting services and the cost of the weekly shop.
In September, inflation stood at +0.7 per cent compared with August and +4.2 per cent compared with September 2025 (up from the +3.3 per cent year-on-year change recorded in August). This figure breaks last month’s record: it is the highest annual rate of inflation since September 2023. Istat has announced this, confirming the preliminary estimate released on 30 September. Last month, too, the trend was influenced by the year-on-year rise in energy prices (from +17.1% to +22.6%). However, the food sector also saw an acceleration (from +1.0% to +1.7%), entirely due to the unprocessed food component (from +3.8% to +5.5%), which is also reflected in the “shopping basket” (from +0.9% to +1.5%). This is a sign that high fuel prices are beginning to spill over into other sectors. Prices for frequently purchased goods are also rising (from +4.3% to +5.2%), as they are directly affected by high fuel prices. Inflation is further being driven by price pressures in the recreational, cultural and personal care services sector (from +2.6% to +2.9%) and in the transport sector (from +0.8% to +1.6%).
Inflation forecast for 2026 already stands at 3.1%
Core inflation (excluding the most volatile components such as energy and fresh food) stands at +1.6% (up from +1.5 per cent), whilst the average annual rate recorded in September (the rate that would apply if the index remained at the same level as in September for the rest of the year) stands at +3.1 per cent (three days ago, the International Monetary Fund had estimated inflation for Italia in 2026 at 3.3%).
Diesel up 34.9%
More specifically, the prices of regulated energy products are accelerating their annual rate of growth (from +18.6% to +25.8%; +5.8 per cent compared with August) driven by prices for town gas and natural gas in the protected market (from +31.0 per cent to +47.0 per cent; +11.4 per cent compared with August); prices for electricity in the protected market, however, remain stable (at +9.7%; no month-on-month change). As for unregulated energy products (from +17.0% to +22.5%; +4.6 per cent on August), year-on-year price growth is accelerating for diesel for transport (from +26.7 per cent to +34.9 per cent; +6.0 per cent compared with August), heating oil (from +31.8 per cent to +38.5 per cent; +4.7 per cent compared with August), petrol (from +16.3 per cent to +21.8 per cent; +4.8% on August), town gas and natural gas on the liberalised market (from +11.3% to +16.7%; +5.6 per cent compared with August) and electricity on the open market (from +18.6 per cent to +22.8 per cent; +3.3 per cent compared with August).
Tensions also over fresh food
Overall, the food sector has seen an acceleration in annual price growth (from +1.0% to +1.7%; +0.6% compared with August). In particular, the price trend for unprocessed foodstuffs shows a marked acceleration (from +3.8% to +5.5%; +2.2% compared with August), driven by rising prices for both vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (from +4.0% to +8.5%; +5.9 per cent compared with August) and fruit and nuts (with a reversal in the trend from -1.7 per cent to +0.5 per cent; +0.8 per cent compared with August). Conversely, the year-on-year decline in the prices of processed food products has deepened (from -0.4% to -0.6%; -0.6% compared with August).
Housing costs are also rising
In the services sector, the upward trend in prices for recreational, cultural and personal care services is accelerating (from +2.6% to +2.9%; +0.5% compared with August), driven mainly by accommodation services (from +3.2% to +3.5%; +4.1% compared with August). The year-on-year growth in prices for transport services is also accelerating (from +0.8% to +1.6%; -2.5 per cent compared with August), driven mainly by the rise in prices for air passenger transport (from -11.5 per cent to -6.1 per cent; -17.6 per cent compared with August).
