Istat

Italia's GDP better than France but worse than Spain and Germany

The statistical agency published a note on the performance of the Italian economy in March and April 2026. Italy's GDP, according to the preliminary estimate for the first quarter of 2026, grew by 0.2 per cent on a cyclical basis, continuing the expansion path started in the second half of 2025

by Rome Editorial Staff

12 May 2026

L’Istat ha pubblicato una nota sull’andamento dell’economia italiana a marzo e aprile 2026 IMAGOECONOMICA

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Italia's GDP still growing in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2026, the international economic cycle is characterised by marked dynamism in the Asian region, a good performance in the United States and persistent weakness in Europe. This is what Istat emphasises in its note on the Italian economy.

The available data, the statistics agency explains, only partly incorporate the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, which is leading to a sharp reduction in supply and a marked rise in energy commodity prices. The outlook remains uncertain, closely linked to the duration of the war and its effects on the energy market.

The preliminary GDP estimate

According to the preliminary estimate for the first quarter of 2026, Italy's GDP grew by 0.2% on a cyclical basis, continuing the expansion path that began in the second half of 2025. In March, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production marked the second consecutive increase in cyclical terms (+0.7%, after +0.2% in February). In the average of the first quarter, however, production decreased slightly compared to the previous three months (-0.2%).

Comparison with other European countries

The performance of Italy's economy was better than that of France (+0.0%) but worse than that of Spain and Germany (+0.6% and +0.3%, respectively). The economic growth recorded in Italia reflects an increase in value added in services, against a decline in agriculture and industry. On the demand side, the domestic component (before inventories) made a negative contribution, while net foreign demand made a positive contribution. The change expected for 2026 is +0.5%.

Labour Market

On the labour market, the number of employed persons fell slightly in March (-0.1% compared to February) to 24.124 million. The decline involves only women, 15-24 year olds and those aged 50 and over. By occupational position, employment declines among fixed-term employees and among the self-employed. In the first quarter of 2026, the economic dynamics of the employed grew slightly (+0.1%).

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Inflazione

In April, according topreliminary estimates, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased in Italia by 2.9% on a trend basis, accelerating (+1.6% in March) due to recent international events, and approaching the euro area average (+3.0% in April; +2.6% in March).

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Contracting Italian trade

After showing in 2025 a surprising resilience to the effects of the restrictions brought about by the US administration's tariff policy, the year 2026 opened with a contraction in Italy's trade: in January-February, value flows decreased in trend terms (-2.2% exports and -4.2% imports). For exports of the manufacturing (down 2.2%), the increase in sales in the metal products (+24.2%) and the pharmaceuticals (+4.6%) was offset by the contraction of all other sectors, which was particularly marked in the case of sales of refining products (-29.1%), transport equipment (-12.5%), other manufacturing (-8.5%) and chemicals (-6.7%). On the other hand, the decline in imports for manufacturing (down 0.5%) was largely due to lower purchases of chemicals (-13.6%) and refining products (-14.1%).

With reference to non-EU trade alone, in Q1 2026 exports in value increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2.1%. Geographically, the trend in exports to the United States remained slightly positive (+1.3% compared to 1Q2025), while sales to China (+11.3%) and Switzerland (+44.1%) grew strongly. On the other hand, the effects of the war between the United States and Iran are visible in the figures for sales to the Middle East, which fell by 52.5% year-on-year in March, due to the interruption to shipments of goods to the Persian Gulf area. On the import side, there were increases in purchases from the US (+29.8%) and decreases in purchases from the Middle East (-15%) and Japan (-14%).