Production up 1.2 per cent on August but down 0.1 per cent year-on-year. Only the car sector is performing well
The quarter was also in the red. The chemicals and fashion sectors performed poorly, whilst the food sector also fell
Key points
On a positive note, September saw a 1.2 per cent increase in industrial production compared with the previous month, a rise driven in particular by capital goods and intermediate goods. However, the good news effectively ends there, given that the data as a whole paints a picture of widespread weakness. On a year-on-year basis, there is in fact a 0.1 per cent decline, and at this point the last positive year-on-year figure dates back to May.
Once again, the transport sector is driving the average, buoyed by motor vehicles (+22.2 per cent year-on-year), which are rebounding from last year’s lows; elsewhere, however, with the exception of the wood and paper sector, sector figures are predominantly in the red or close to zero.
The worst-performing sector is chemicals, down by eight points, whilst the textiles and clothing sector is once again seeing a sharp decline, and the food sector has fallen by almost two points. The strongest figure by far amongst all the categories recorded by Istat is that for arms and ammunition, with figures more than doubling – a recurring theme at this stage and certainly not something that can be classified across the board as good news.
Looking at the global average, after three consecutive years in the red, 2026 may finally see a turnaround, but any progress – even if still visible in December – will nevertheless be limited and insufficient to close the gap compared with 2022: at present, in the first nine months of the year, production growth stands at just 0.3 per cent.
The painting
This September figure is, after all, consistent with Istat’s preliminary estimates for third-quarter GDP, which remained unchanged from the previous period and showed a decline in its industry-related component, just as the quarterly production figure itself, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, is in the red. The latest estimates for 2026 also point to weakness, indicating a phase of growth that is, however, limited to current values, whilst it is virtually zero when adjusted for price effects. According to forecasts by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, manufacturing revenues in 2026 will grow by 4.1 per cent in current terms, approaching 1,170 billion euros (a new all-time high) but growth in real terms is limited to 0.8 per cent, with more than one sector ending up in negative territory. Qualitative surveys also provide mixed signals, with consumer confidence in October falling to its lowest level since September three years earlier, whilst on the business side, the manufacturing climate remains stable.
