Istat, inflation rises again in March +1.3% year-on-year

After the pause in February, inflation rose again in March. According to preliminary estimates by Istat, the national consumer price index for the entire collectivity (NIC), before tobacco products, increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 1.3% on an annual basis (from +0.8% in the previous month). While 'core inflation', net of energy and fresh food, accelerated from +2.3% to +2.4%, and 'core inflation' net of energy goods alone decelerated from +2.6% to +2.5%. "The slight acceleration is affected by the easing of the trend decline in the prices of energy goods," Istat comments. Acquired inflation for 2024 is +0.6% for the general index and +1.3% for the core component.

The year-on-year trend in the prices of the so-called "shopping trolley" slowed in March (+3.0% from 3.7% in February). Prices of food, household and personal care slowed on a trend basis (from +3.4% to +3.0%), as did those of products with a high purchasing frequency (from +2.8% in February to +2.7%). The prices of unprocessed food also showed a slowdown in March (+2.6% from +4.4%). so did the prices of tobacco (from +2.6% to +1.9%).

The statistics agency explains that the cyclical increase in the overall index reflects, for the most part, price growth in Services related to transport due also to seasonal factors (+1.4%), in Processed food and Regulated energy goods (both +0.7%) and in Non-durable goods (+0.4%). The effects of these increases were only partly offset by decreases in the prices of Unregulated Energy Goods (-1.9%) and Unprocessed Food (-0.7%).

The trend in the prices of goods primarily reflects that of energy goods, which despite the cyclical drop recorded in March (-1.7%), show a tendential profile in clear recovery (from -17.3% in February to -10.8%). The attenuation of deflationary pressures affected both the non-regulated component (from -17.2% to -10.3%; -1.9% in the month-on-month) and the regulated component (from -18.4% to -13.8%; up 0.7% in the month-on-month). More in detail, in the non-regulated energy sector, there was a decrease in the prices of electricity on the free market (from -40.6% to -22.5%; -5.3% since February), city gas and natural gas on the free market (from -32.3% to -24.9%; -4.8% year-on-year), transport diesel (from -2.8% to -0.1%; -0.3% compared to the previous month) and petrol (with a turnaround from -1.2% to +0.2%), which was affected by tensions in the economy (+0.9%). In the regulated sector, there was a noticeable tendential acceleration in the prices of City Gas and Natural Gas protected market (from +28.6% to +51.0%; +1.2% on a monthly basis), while those of Electricity protected market remained stable at -42.7% (null on a cyclical basis).