Inflation, Istat: in November it fell to 1.1%, the lowest since January
Preliminary estimate revised downwards. Shopping cart slows to +1.5%
In November, inflation showed a change of -0.2% on a monthly basis and +1.1% on an annual basis (from +1.2% in the previous month); the preliminary estimate was +1.2%. This was announced by Istat.
"Inflation fell to 1.1%, the lowest level recorded since January", is the comment of Istat. The dynamics of the general index are affected by the effects due to the slowdown in the prices of unprocessed food (+1.1% from +1.9%), regulated energy (-3.2% from -0.5%) and some types of services, in particular transport (+0.9% from +2.0%), only partially offset by the softening of the decline in those of unregulated energy (-4.3% from -4.9%). The year-on-year growth rate of "shopping trolley" prices decreased (+1.5% from +2.1%), while core inflation stood at +1.7% (from +1.9%)". Acquired inflation for 2025 is +1.5% for the overall index and +1.8% for the core component.
The voices
The slight deceleration of inflation, in November, is mainly due to the slowdown, on a trend basis, of the prices of Services related to transport (from +2.0% to +0.9%), of unprocessed Food (from +1.9% to +1.1%), of processed Food (from +2,5% to +2.1%), and Recreational, Cultural and Personal Care Services (from +3.3% to +3.0%), compounded by the widening price declines in Regulated Energies (from -0.5% to -3.2%) and Communication Services (from -0.3% to -0.8%). These effects are only partly offset by the recovery in prices of non-regulated Energies (from -4.9% to -4.3%). So-called 'core inflation', net of energy and fresh food, slowed down, as did inflation net of energy goods only (both from +1.9% to +1.7%). The trend growth of goods prices decelerates from +0.2% to +0.1%, that of services from +2.6% to +2.3%. Thus, the inflation differential between the services and goods sectors narrowed to +2.2 p.p. (from +2.4 p.p. in the previous month). Food, household and personal care prices slowed (from +2.1% to +1.5%) as did those for high-frequency goods (from +2.1% to +2%).
The negative cyclical change in the general index mainly reflects the decrease in the prices of Recreational, cultural and personal care services and those of Services related to transport (-1.6% and -1.3% respectively, mainly due to seasonal effects), only partly offset by the increase in the prices of Unregulated energy (+0.7%) and Unprocessed food (+0.4%). The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) registered a change of -0.2% on a monthly basis and +1.1% on an annual basis (slowing from +1.3% in the previous month), confirming the preliminary estimate. The national consumer price index for blue- and white-collar households (FOI), net of tobacco products, recorded a cyclical change of -0.1% and a trend of +1.0%.
