Italgas: investments doubled to 15.6 billion by 2030 after acquisition of 2i Rete Gas

The plan also confirms and reinforces Italgas's commitment in the water sector, where the group has entered as a result of the acquisition of the Siram Veolia shareholding package, and where 450 million euro will be invested over the next seven years, destined both for selected M&A operations, and to borrow in the water networks the best practices and technologies developed in gas distribution, starting with the water 'twin' of the Dana proprietary software. Another EUR 300 million will instead be allocated to energy efficiency, in line with the previous strategic plan, with an eye on expanding the business organically and by external lines.

So many tiles, therefore, that will allow, together of course with the acquisition of 21 Rete Gas, to increase the Rab (the net invested capital for regulatory purposes, i.e. the size that defines the actual value of a company focused exclusively on regulated business), at an average annual rate of 9.4%, to reach EUR 18.2 billion at the end of 2030. A level that could be further strengthened if the boost from gas tenders also arrived (at which point the Rab would stand at around EUR 19.2 billion, still within the plan horizon).

As for the more strictly financial figures, the marriage with the main competitor will enable synergies and cost efficiencies, also as a result of the use of artificial intelligence, amounting to EUR 200 million by 2030, compared to the calculation base set at 2023. While revenues, thanks to incremental investments to digitise the acquired networks, are expected to grow by a further EUR 80 million between now and 2030. At the end of the plan, therefore, this bar will touch approximately EUR 3.6 billion, while ebitda is expected at EUR 2.8 billion. When all is said and done, ebitda will grow by an average of 13% each year, as will profit, while earnings per share will increase by around 10%, taking into account the capital increase to service the transaction. Compared to the previous plan, the increase in earnings per share will be positive as early as 2026, reaching about 15% in 2029.

The financial structure envisaged for the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas and the significant cash generation will then allow the group to keep its net financial position under control, in line with its goal of maintaining its current credit rating. In fact, the debt-to-Rab ratio is expected to peak in 2025, following the closing of the transaction, and return to the 65% area by 2028, with the average cost of debt remaining below 3%.

As for the guidance for 2024, which is not affected by the acquisition, the targets approved at the end of May are confirmed, with technical investments of around EUR 0.9 billion and adjusted revenues of around EUR 1.8 billion, with adjusted ebitda of between EUR 1.32-1.35 billion and adjusted ebit of EUR 0.8 billion. Excluding the impacts of Ifrs 16, net debt at the end of 2024 is confirmed to be around EUR 6.6 billion, with leverage of 63 per cent.

Lastly, the dividend with a policy confirmed until 2026, with a floor increased to reflect 'the high level of confidence in the expected results and with the objective of guaranteeing shareholders an attractive, sustainable remuneration and the possibility of continuing to benefit from the expected growth,' the press release with the numbers of the plan to 2030 clarifies. The new policy provides for the distribution of a dividend equal to the greater of the amount resulting from the DPS 2023 of EUR 0.352 increased by 5 per cent per annum and the DPS equal to 65 per cent of the adjusted net profit per share.

Following the acquisition, Italgas also confirms with the new plan its targets for reducing climate-altering emissions and energy consumption to 2030: -33% in net energy consumption (baseline 2020), 42% in climate-altering emissions (Scope 1 and Scope 2 market-based) and a 33% reduction in Scope 3 (supply chain). Targets that the group expects to achieve 'thanks to the continuous improvement of the network, the capillary action to search for dispersions, the targeted planning of investments, and the constant involvement of its supply chain'.