Italian wheat, harvest down 10% but prices do not recover

Recovery can wait. Despite a harvest at an all-time low, durum wheat prices, having lost more than 10% of their value since the beginning of the year, remain pinned on the national commodity exchanges at around 330 euros per tonne for the most prized varieties, while paying 100 euros less for the new 'under merchant' category, introduced last year to allow the marketing of a portion of the harvest ruined by bad weather. And with no prospect of improvement in the short term, unless there are unexpected changes in the world production scenario, which instead announces a strong recovery in 2024 (unlike soft wheat, which has been at its highest for 10 months due to the supply deficit), as confirmed by the analysts of Areté and the IGC (the International Grains Council) who in recent days have outlined the prospects for the new campaign at the Durum Days in Foggia. Not even the imposition of the new EU duties on imports from Russia and Belarus will have any effect on the domestic market, given that Moscow had already banned durum wheat exports from January to May.

At a national level, according to Crea's indications, production is expected to fall by 10% this year to 3.4 million tonnes, less than 60% of the needs of the milling industry that transforms durum wheat into the semolina necessary for pasta factories for a production that represents the pride of Made in Italy agro-foods with a vocation for export, where around 60% of pasta packages are destined. The 10% reduction estimated on the eve of threshing, which comes after a 2023 campaign that was already down and, above all, largely compromised in terms of quality, is an average that hides the collapse of harvests in the Granary of Italy.

Along the Tavoliere delle Puglie, where sowing was delayed last winter due to a lack of water, in the hilly areas where sowing was done early, the ears did not grow at all or were burnt, as explained by Giorgio Mercuri, president of Confcooperative Fedagripesca Puglia, who manages a large cooperative in the area. Even in the areas close to the sea, production appears to be compromised: 'Paradoxically, those who sowed late and harvested later, with excellent quality, have been saved. In Sicily, where Coldiretti farmers demonstrated this week to demand immediate aid against the drought, the situation is dramatic.

But the effects of the weather crisis were also felt in the North. In Emilia Romagna, thunderstorms, gusts of wind and hailstorms have lashed the wheat in the most delicate phase in which, explains Confagricoltura, weight and quality characteristics are determined, causing the ear of wheat to become lodged on 50% of the regional surface dedicated to this crop.

From the milling industry, the link in the chain that buys wheat from producers and resells it to pasta factories, came a conciliatory message addressed to farmers who have raised the tone of their protest this year, amid rising costs and stagnant prices. "We have to understand that the growth of pasta exports is a driving success factor for the entire supply chain," said the president of Italmopa's durum wheat mills, Enzo Martinelli. "If we do not meet the needs of pasta factories also through imports, someone else will take the market share conquered by Italy. Moreover,' he recalled, 'origin is not synonymous with quality.