Emissions, Italy slows decline to 3% in Q1 2024

The decline in CO2 emissions in Italy is slowing down. According to Ispra's forecasts on economic data for the first quarter of 2024, in the current year 'a decrease of 3 per cent is estimated for trend emissions of climate-changing gases'. The decrease was calculated to be 6.3% in the last quarter of 2023. CO2 output falls in all sectors except transport, while in Europe, Eurostat estimated a drop of 4% in the first quarter of 2024, in line with the decline at the end of last year.

According to Ispra's analysis, the transport sector is expected to see an increase in emissions (+0.7%) while the other sectors are expected to see reductions: emissions from the energy production sector (-12.9%), industry (-2.2%), and heating (-0.3%) are expected to fall due to the particularly mild temperatures in the early months of the year.

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for electricity was higher than in the same period of 2023 (+0.7%) and was met at 41.8% by renewable energy sources, a sprint pulled by hydroelectric power, which continued and improved in the following months. Industrial production decreased in the first quarter of 2024 by 3.5%. As far as transport is concerned, petrol consumption rose by 1.3%, a positive performance that led to numbers never so high in 13 years, while aviation fuel consumption grew by 4.8%. Diesel and LPG increased by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively in the first quarter, while gas consumption for domestic and commercial heating decreased by 0.6%.

In the Ispra calculation, the trend trend of emissions from agriculture and waste management is considered constant as the estimation methodology is being refined

With a view to achieving carbon neutrality in Europe in 2050, the milestone to 2030 is to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 per cent compared to 1990 levels, with the help of the regulations contained in the Fit for 55 per cent package. According to the European Environmental Agency, emissions, including those from international aviation, in the EU decreased by 30% between 1990 and 2021. Current projections by member states suggest that a 48% reduction in net emissions compared to 1990 levels will be achieved by 2030. Although this indicates an increase in ambition from the previously projected 41%, this will still leave a gap to the 2030 target.