Forecasts

It’s set to be hot this coming weekend, with temperatures reaching 39 degrees, but from Wednesday a cool air mass from the north will bring rain

The sixth heatwave of the summer is on its way, set to last from 4 to 9 September. Tropical and super-tropical nights are forecast, particularly in the south and on the islands

 ANSA

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The respite from the extreme temperatures following the peaks recorded in central and southern Italy on Friday 28 August looks set to come to an end shortly. Italia is bracing itself for the sixth heatwave of the year. The subtropical high-pressure system, which has hit the country on several occasions during the summer of 2026, bringing sweltering and muggy conditions, is expected to return. From Friday 4 to Wednesday 9 September, temperatures will rise to as much as eight degrees above seasonal averages. From Wednesday, however, the situation will begin to change, and from the following day, rain and cooler air from Northern Europe will arrive.

The sixth wave

Despite extreme temperatures for this time of year, we will be spared excessive anomalies thanks to the calendar, as the days grow shorter and the hours during which towns are exposed to the sun gradually decrease. According to Lorenzo Tedici, the meteorologist in charge of media relations at iLMeteo.it, temperatures will not rise above 37–38 degrees, whereas in the middle of July, a similar atmospheric pattern would have caused temperatures to breach the 41–42-degree mark.

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The Ministry of Health’s heatwave bulletin, in fact, shows a reduced number of orange and red alerts, which indicate conditions that are potentially hazardous to public health. On Thursday 3rd, the highest alert level is forecast only in Bari, and the only city on orange will be Cagliari. On Friday 4th, however, all 27 urban centres monitored by the bulletin will be marked with green and yellow alerts.

The real danger of yet another summer heatwave, however, as the meteorologist explains, will lie not so much in the immediate heat as in the energy stored over time: ‘The seas will continue to boil, turning into immense reservoirs of fuel for the months to come,’ explains Tedici.

Extreme temperatures

According to iLMeteo.it, following the thunderstorms that occurred on Wednesday 2 September, particularly in the northern hills and in the mountainous and inland areas of the south, the weather is expected to stabilise on Thursday, leading to a reduction in rainfall and the establishment of a high-pressure system, bringing clear skies and high temperatures.

The strengthening of the high-pressure system over the country will lead to a further rise in temperatures from Friday 4 September, with stable, sunny conditions everywhere, except for a few isolated showers over the Alpine mountain ranges along the border. Between Friday and the weekend, temperatures will rise and, in some parts of central and southern Italy – the area hardest hit by the fifth heatwave – they will reach 37–38 degrees, particularly along the Adriatic coast and in the inland areas of Sardinia and Sicily. The highest temperatures will be recorded in Foggia and Ascoli Piceno. According to 3BMeteo, over the weekend the mercury could even rise to 39 degrees in the Tavoliere region.

Temperatures are also expected to reach at least 35–36 degrees in Rome and Florence, as well as across the Po Valley, with 36 degrees in Bologna, whilst Milan is expected to see at least 34 degrees. It is possible that the all-time monthly record of 34.6 degrees, recorded in Brera, in the city centre, on 1 September 2024, will be broken in the Lombard capital.

Super tropical nights

According to forecasts from iLMeteo.it, as daytime temperatures rise, minimum temperatures will inevitably rise too. During the sixth wave, temperatures could remain consistently above 20 degrees even at night. We will therefore once again see the phenomenon of ‘tropical nights’, during which the minimum temperature does not fall below 20 degrees.

In some parts of the south, however – and particularly in the inland areas of Sicily and Sardinia – the situation will be even more extreme, with minimum temperatures forecast not to fall below 25 degrees, giving rise to what are known as ‘super-tropical nights’.

In the meantime, however, as Tedici explains, in Northern Europe ‘the nights are getting longer and there are signs of the first influxes of cold polar air. When an Atlantic weather system inevitably plunges, very soon, into the heart of the Mediterranean, the clash with this overheated sea surface will be explosive. The risk of storms and extreme autumn weather events will not be a remote possibility, but an almost certain physical consequence. We will soon begin to worry about autumn storms’.

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‘To enjoy “clear, stable weather, free from this exhausting atmospheric turmoil”, we will probably have to wait for the colder, but reassuring, refuge of winter,’ concludes the meteorologist.

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