Scientists alert on Jubilee: with millions of pilgrims more risks for Covid, bird flu and Mpox

Only a handful of days remain before the official opening of the Jubilee on 24 December. A world event that will bring millions of people from all over the world to Rome and that, as happens in these cases, requires epidemiological surveillance to monitor possible outbreaks of respiratory viruses that can in extreme cases even trigger new pandemics. "If we remember, the Mers epidemic broke out precisely during the pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia. Mass movements of people can be the cause of respiratory virus epidemics. We must be ready," warns epidemiologist Massimo Ciccozzi, one of the authors of an appeal on the health risks linked to the huge flow of pilgrims arriving for the Jubilee.

"The lessons of recent years must not be forgotten. Investing in preparedness for a possible pandemic is not an option, but an ethical and practical necessity. Gaps in knowledge must be filled, collaboration promoted, and prevention prioritised'. These are the conclusions of a letter sent to the Lancet magazine by a team of Italian epidemiologists and scientists, (Francesco Branda and Massimo Ciccozzi of the Campus Bio-Medico University and Fabio Scarpa of the University of Sassari), who have analysed the possible risks for the Jubilee 2025 that is now just around the corner. The researchers also drew up a 'seven-pillar' plan defining the priorities to be implemented.

"We are returning to normal after the Covid emergency, but there are other warning signs, for example bird flu, and we must remain vigilant about Mpox (formerly monkeypox)," the scientists remind us. "These threats to public health underline an undeniable truth: prevention and epidemiological monitoring are essential to avert the local risk of epidemics and prevent them from turning into global emergencies. World events such as the Jubilee, 'with the immense influx of pilgrims from all over the world, and thus the concentration of millions of people in confined spaces, create an ideal environment for the spread of infectious diseases, including respiratory viruses, gastrointestinal infections and vector-borne diseases. The combination of high human density, international travel and shared housing amplifies the risk of new outbreaks,' they warn.

The letter also recalls what has happened in the past with events of a similar scale to the Jubilee. "Historically, mass events have been associated with disease transmission. The Mers-CoV pandemic during the Hajj (Mecca-Saudi Arabia) pilgrimage in 2012, for example, highlighted the risk of epidemics associated with large religious gatherings. Virus transmission was accelerated by the concentration of pilgrims from different nations and the sharing of confined spaces such as dormitories and public transport. In 2003, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) spread significantly at large international gatherings, as confirmed by an international study. The Jubilee therefore, with its large movement of people and concentration of pilgrims, requires special vigilance: especially in the context of emerging pathogens and the growing threat of antibiotic resistance'.