Vannacci’s rise complicates the electoral law debate. The possibility of a run-off is back on the table

The centre-right is tempted to hold a run-off vote on the electoral law. No decision has yet been taken, and assessments – particularly from a technical and constitutional perspective – are reportedly ongoing; however, according to well-informed sources, the chances of this mechanism being included in the centre-right’s reform are on the rise. The majority’s sherpas will discuss the matter tomorrow, having been convened on the eve of the deadline for tabling amendments in the Senate’s Constitutional Affairs Committee on Tuesday at 12 noon. It is there that decisions will be taken on this issue, which some, such as FdI Senator Marcello Pera, are pressing for even as Vannacci’s party continues to rise in the polls.

The latest poll by BiDiMedia s.r.l. on voting intentions, conducted on 26 August, has shaken things up: Fratelli d’Italia has fallen for the second month running, standing at 25.4 per cent (-0.8), whilst the Lega has dropped below 5 per cent to 4.8 per cent (-0.4). Futuro Nazionale, on the other hand, has risen to 8.0% (+0.9), a steady increase that sees it overtake Forza Italia, which remains at 7.3% (+0.1). Without an alliance between the centre-right and Vannacci, defeat for Giorgia Meloni and her allies in the upcoming elections, based purely on arithmetic, would seem certain, whilst the centre-right, expanded to include Futuro Nazionale, remains in first place at 47.2 per cent (unchanged), followed by the broad coalition, down slightly to 44.7 per cent (-0.2).

In this scenario, the return of a run-off could resolve the problem for the centre-right: in the first round, the centre-right and Vannacci could split the vote, and the latter’s votes could be (at least partly) reabsorbed in the second round. This scenario of a run-off would not be viewed unfavourably even by Ignazio La Russa – as explained - Forza Italia would not have ruled it out, whilst the Lega would remain the most hesitant among the allies (the centre-right electorate is traditionally less inclined to return to the polls two weeks later). In any case, as more than a few have pointed out, a technical solution must be found to guard against the risk of different majorities in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The reform currently provides that, even in this scenario (as in the case where no party reaches 42 per cent), a purely proportional system would be used. But what would happen if the run-off were to produce differing results?

Tomorrow, the centre-right will also return to discuss the wording regarding gender alternation: it remains to be seen whether, in the end, they will choose to retain a gender quota even for list leaders, as currently provided for under the Rosatellum. What is certain, as confirmed by the Minister for Relations with Parliament Luca Ciriani, is that in the Senate ‘the amendment on preferences will be tabled again’. It would also appear that the measure introduced in the Chamber of Deputies – which stipulates that the votes of those who, with the exception of the ‘best loser’, have not reached 3 per cent, are not counted for the purposes of calculating the national electoral quota and, consequently, the majority bonus – is set to be dropped. According to several experts within the centre-right, there is a risk of unconstitutionality linked to the fact that the bonus could be awarded to the coalition which, in reality, did not win the most votes.