Leonardo runs and updates highs after plan and accounts, orders above estimates

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Leonardo sprinted to Piazza Affari (FTSE MIB) after the 2025 accounts, with profit increase and coupon hike, the 2026 guidance that sees orders expected to exceed consensus forecasts and the update of the new plan that aims at 30 billion in revenues by 2030 and 142 billion in orders in five years. The stock, which has been on the backburner for days on the prospect of an arms race due to the escalation of the conflict in Iran, updates its all-time highs, with the shares having gained over 22% in the last month and almost 34% so far in 2026, with again in the last year of over 50%.

Leonardo ended 2025 with an adjusted net profit of EUR 1.015 billion, up 18.6%, and a total net profit of EUR 1.33 billion (+15.1%). Revenues improved by 9.8% to EUR 19.5 billion and free cash flow exceeded EUR 1 billion (EUR 1.011 billion), while net debt fell to EUR 1 billion from EUR 1.795 billion at the end of 2024. The BoD will propose to the shareholders' meeting thedistribution of a dividend of EUR 0.63 per share, up 21% from 2024. As for 2026, the group estimates to achieve orders of around 25 billion and revenues of 21 billion (19.5 billion last year). Ebit is expected to be EUR 2.03 billion (EUR 1.75 billion in 2025).

"Guidance is broadly in line with expectations on revenues, EBITDA, and Focf, while orders are above expectations," point out Intermonte analysts. In the same vein, Banca Akros experts: '2026 guidance is much higher than expected for orders,' while new plan targets, which do not include the integration of the Defence business that the company is acquiring from Iveco Group (the deal is expected to be completed at the end of the month), 'are above expectations on a like-for-like basis.

Leonardo has 'achieved everything we planned in the first industrial plan. We have all the platforms, from the terrestrial to the space, naval, and air domains. We have invested heavily in digital, AI, and cybersecurity. Today, we can count on a competitive advantage that few can boast, and we are able to develop products and solutions to respond to future threats," said Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani, explaining that if the previous plan went "beyond all forecasts", with the new plan to 2030 the group aims at "a greater consolidation of its role as a high-tech player in global security".

And it is precisely the plan that has been particularly praised by analysts: "The targets to 2030 appear well above our forecasts. The Plan may prove more successful than expected in improving margins and cash conversion, especially as defence spending may be more robust than anticipated, especially in Europe," explained Citi's experts, who said that an additional benefit may come from a potential increase in demand for civil helicopters and defence equipment in the Gulf countries.