Global wealth

‘Let savings in Europe and Italia be channelled into productive investment’

An interview with Marco Piccitto, Managing Partner for the Mediterranean at McKinsey & Company

Marco Piccitto  -  Managing partner per il Mediterraneo di McKinsey & Company

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

“What is missing is the conversion of savings into productive capital.” Marco Piccitto, Managing Partner for the Mediterranean at McKinsey & Company, who uses these words to comment on the phase of sharp wealth divergence between the major economies (US–China–Europe) described in McKinsey’s latest Global Balance Sheet.

Is Europe really destined for stagnation?

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The eurozone finds itself in a situation similar to that of the pre-pandemic decade: productivity has been stagnant since 2022, weak demand, and household savings rising to 15.1 per cent in 2025 compared with an average of 12.5 per cent over the 2010–2019 decade. The paradox is that the European economy appears, on the whole, to be more balanced than the US economy, with property values and private debt having returned to historical averages. Productive investment remains below pre-pandemic levels and below the global average, and the investment gap between European firms and those in the United States stands at around 700 billion dollars. Closing this gap, through reforms to boost competitiveness and with businesses showing greater courage in investing, would change the trajectory; leaving it unaddressed would mean continuing with limited growth.

The Italian case: a strength or a missed opportunity?

Italian households hold around 13,000 billion dollars in net wealth, with debt levels among the lowest in the advanced economies and a property market readjusting towards its long-term average. The counterbalance is public debt at over 130 per cent of GDP: as in all advanced economies, with high interest rates, moderate growth alone may no longer be sufficient to ensure its sustainability. The encouraging sign is that in 2025, Italia was among the countries where net investment rates exceeded long-term averages, but investment must continue, both by private enterprises and by the state.

Is ‘paper’ wealth a real risk?

Global household wealth has reached a record high of $570,000 billion, growing by 7.3 per cent, but only 20 per cent of that growth comes from net new investment, compared with an average of 30 per cent over the previous two decades. Almost 60 per cent stems from asset prices rising faster than inflation: global equity is now worth 2.8 times GDP, compared with a 25-year average of 1.9. In the United States, the equity of non-financial companies is worth 2.4 times their net assets, and valuations of this kind remain sustainable only if corporate profits continue to grow faster than GDP over the long term. An imbalance of this kind can be resolved either through an acceleration in productivity, or through inflation – historically the most common route – or through a price correction, as happened in Japan in the 1990s. Only an acceleration in productivity protects wealth.

 What should Italia focus on over the next five years?

Two interrelated indicators: productive investment and public debt. Productive assets – that is, infrastructure, machinery and intellectual property – form the basis for future growth, and in 2025 Italia ranks among the countries where net investment rates have exceeded their long-term averages. This represents an improvement on Italia’s past performance, though it does not yet bring the country into line with its competitors: the net investment rate remains at around 2.2 per cent of GDP, roughly half that of the United States.

This is why we must continue to invest: the foundations for bridging the gap are in place – first and foremost, household wealth – and there is no shortage of areas where the return on invested capital would be significant. Public debt is the second indicator, because interest payments crowd out productive investment, all the more so when interest rates rise faster than economic growth. Hence the need to continue with a policy of public spending focused on productive investment rather than on expenditure for its own sake.

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