Lilly runs up stock market on better estimates than Novo Nordisk for anti-obesity drugs

The real challenge in the pharmaceutical sector at the moment is played out in the area of anti-obesity drugs, and at the moment it seems that Eli Lilly has the upper hand over all competitors, starting with Denmark's Novo Nordisk. The US pharmaceutical group has announced 2026 estimates that expect revenues to increase by around 25%, while Novo's sales are expected to fall between 5% and 13% over the course of the year. This is the clearest sign yet of diverging trajectories in a market increasingly driven by consumer demand rather than insurance coverage in the US. The markets reacted immediately, penalising the already struggling Danish group with a 17.17% drop to DKK 304.65 (EUR 40.80) per share. On the other hand, at mid-session on Wall Street, Eli Lilly gained more than 10% and then fell back slightly, but remained above the $1 trillion capitalisation threshold, which has never been reached by any pharmaceutical group.

The battleground is the new frontier of slimming drugs in pill form. Novo launched an oral version of Wegovy last month at a starting price of $149, ahead of a regulatory decision expected in April for Eli Lilly's rival pill. The latter plans to launch the orforglipron pill in the US in the second quarter and in most international markets in 2027, said Ken Custer, head of the group's cardiometabolic division, during the results and outlook call. "We are very encouraged by what we are seeing with oral Wegovy, because it confirms our belief that there is a significant number of overweight or obese people who have been waiting for an oral option," Custer said.

In detail for the current year, the US group estimates earnings per share in the range of $33.50 to $35, with the lower end already above the analysts' average estimate of $33.23. The group also indicated annual revenues of between $80 billion and $83 billion, well above Wall Street's expectations of $77.62 billion.

There was also a positive market reception for the results of GlaxoSmithKline, which jumped 6.91% on the London Stock Exchange, hitting a 24-year high. The British pharmaceutical group announced a strong increase in profits in 2025, driven by growth in its specialised treatments (HIV, oncology): net profit reached GBP 5.716 billion (EUR 6.63 billion), up from GBP 2.575 billion in 2024 (+122%) on revenues up 4% to GBP 32.7 billion. Looking ahead, the company expects sales growth to slow in 2026, but confirmed its revenue target of over £40 billion for 2031.

New launches remain key to sustaining growth. To secure a large pipeline last month, Gsk submitted a $2.2bn bid for Rapt Therapeutics, a company developing an experimental food allergy drug. The group's portfolio also includes five regulatory approvals for new treatments obtained last year. However, the uncertainties hanging over the vaccine business - particularly in the US - are set to be reflected in 2026, following decisions on the subject by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Gsk, therefore, estimates that in 2026, sales of the vaccine and consumer drug division may drop by a low single-digit percentage or remain 'stable', while the specialty drug business is expected to grow in the low double digits.