Administrative elections, why the numbers do not shift the balance between the poles

On 10 June, in the aftermath of the closure of the polls for the European elections, the focus was all on the results of the different parties. But there was another game on the line: that of the municipalities, which closed its first half that very day. On Monday 24 June, with the ballots, this administrative round, the largest in terms of municipalities called to vote in five years, came to an end.

In the table published here, we see how it went for all municipalities with more than 15,000 inhabitants. There are 224 units in all, from which, however, the 7 that voted under a different electoral system (and therefore not suitable for inclusion in the comparison) in the previous municipal elections, not yet having 15,000 inhabitants, must be subtracted. As we can see, up to 9 June, these municipalities were mostly governed by PD-led administrations: 112 in all. Almost twice as many as those of the centre-right with Forza Italia (65), to which must be added the 11 won by candidates supported by Fdi and/or Lega but not Forza Italia. Not many non-bipolar outgoing administrations: 23 for candidates supported by civic lists only and just 3 for the M5s.

Coming to this round, a good half (118) of the municipalities had already been won in the first round. In particular, 70 had been won by mayors supported by the PD (in various coalitional formats), against 38 by the centre-right with Forza Italia - to which must be added the 5 without Tajani's party. Just under double the number of municipalities won by the centre-left: a victory in line with that observed five years ago in the final result. Note the just four municipalities won by civic candidates.

But that was only the first half. A hundred municipalities (99 to be precise) still remained to be assigned in the runoff round yesterday and the day before. The second half was in continuity with the first: 42 municipalities for the PD and allies, 32 for the centre-right with Fi and 4 for the right without Fi. Noteworthy are the 17 victories of civic candidates; while the M5s (stopped at zero after the first round) confirmed its traditional ability to win ballots, winning three (all against candidates supported by the Pd).

Thus, on the whole, the 2024 municipal round is an interlocutory one, since it did not shift the balance between the poles much compared to the outgoing administrations. The centre-left achieved a numerical victory, also enhanced by the successes in the important cases of Bari and Florence. However, it does not mark an advance over previous municipal elections: it now has exactly the same number of mayors as before the vote. This is an element that can make the centre-right forces smile, which, as in the European elections, are advancing, albeit by a small margin. And which must sound as a wake-up call to the opposition forces about the need to find ways to add up their votes in order to be able to contest Palazzo Chigi with Giorgia Meloni.