The study

Logistics: road transport costs set to soar in 2025, whilst rail costs are expected to remain stable

This is confirmed by the Bank of Italia’s analysis. There has been a decline in air freight, whilst rail freight figures remain stable. By sea, however, there continues to be considerable variation in freight rates

by Anna Mulassano

26 June 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Rise in the costs of road transport by around 10 per cent, whilst prices for rail transport remain stable, whilst those for air transport are falling. These are some of the key findings of the Bank of Italia’s ‘Survey on International Freight Transport’ for 2025. The share of transport costs in Italy’s trade in goods remained stable compared with 2024 for exports (2.6 per cent), but fell slightly for imports (from 4.2 to 4.1 per cent). According to the analysis by Palazzo Koch, ‘these trends reflect varying dynamics across the different sectors’.

The painting

As regards road transport, in 2025 average costs returned to the high levels recorded in 2022. Alongside the growth in volumes handled, the rise in operating costs (up by around 10 per cent, as mentioned) also played a significant role in the increase: the main factor is drivers’ wages, linked to the persistent staff shortage. The shortage of operators, together with the decline in heavy goods vehicle registrations in Europe, has led to a reduction in transport capacity.

The rise in costs has affected all geographical areas. In the rail sector, average transport costs per tonne have remained stable overall: in fact, they have risen moderately in the container sector and fell by a similar amount in the bulk sector. The fall in operating costs, on the other hand, had an impact on air transport, a sector which recorded, on average, a fall in costs.

Transport by sea cannot be regarded as a single sector, as the various types of vessel used are characterised by a wide range of freight rates. As regards container transport, costs have fallen significantly following the exceptional increases in 2024. According to Via Nazionale, this figure must be viewed in the context of the expansion of cargo capacity and the weakening of the market power of the major alliances between shipping companies.

Imports and exports

The decline was particularly marked for import freight rates (-26 per cent), which had risen sharply in 2024 following the diversion of trade round the Cape of Good Hope.

On the exports, on the other hand, the announcement of US tariffs prompted buyers to bring forward their purchases, helping to limit the extent of the fall in freight rates (-13 per cent).

Prices in dollars per tonne for the bulk transport of liquids have fallen significantlyfor crude oil and a modest increase for chemicals, but a decrease was also recorded for dry bulk cargoes. Analysts at the Bank of Italy attribute this trend to sluggish demand and an abundance of cargo space. In recent months, however, hostilities in the Middle East have caused a significant rise in liquid bulk freight rates.

General cargo and the Ro-Ro sector

For general cargo, costs in euros per tonne have fallen slightly. More specifically, plant, machinery and transport equipment saw a moderate increase in freight rates, whilst pipes and metal materials – as well as chemicals, construction materials and forestry products – saw a decrease. In the Ro-Ro sector, i.e. the transport by sea of road vehicles with or without a driver, average costs have risen significantly. According to sources at Via Nazionale, this increase was driven by higher demand – partly due to the rise in road freight rates – and the measures taken at European level regarding decarbonisation of maritime transport.

Last year, moreover, there was a sharp rise in the cost of natural gas flows: on average, +30 per cent. Overall, the freight transport balance has widened the deficit – which is now structurally negative – further: from -10.7 billion to -12.6 billion.