Lottomatica against the tide after the 2025 accounts, analysts OK

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Lottomatica is the only green sign on Milan's main list (FTSE MIB). The company released its 2025 accounts with an adjusted net profit of EUR 369 million, up 45% on 2024, and adjusted ebitda of EUR 856 million (+21%) on revenues of EUR 2.255 billion (+12%). Revenue net of winnings increased by 8% to EUR 4.735 billion. Net financial debt stood at EUR 2.1 billion at the end of 2025, representing 2.4 times leverage (EUR 1.8 billion at the end of 2024). The board will propose the distribution of a dividend of EUR 0.44 per share. The 2026 guidance is for revenues between 2.390- 2.4603 billion and an adjusted ebitda between 940 and 980 million.

According to Equita, "the results and guidance do not contain any significant surprises compared to expectations but confirm the group's solid growth trajectory with an expected ebitda growth of 12% in the midpoint and free cash flow in our estimates of over 400 million". The business house points out that 'with the stock trading at 7.1-6.3 times ev/ebitda, we think the results can be supportive for the stock'.

Intermonte focused on fourth quarter results, which were "slightly above consensus estimates in terms of revenue and ebitda, with adjusted net profit better than our expectations. Overall Guidance 2026 is in line with our and consensus estimates, with ebitda 1% better at midpoint. The group proposed a dividend of 30% of adjusted net profit, in line with expectations, and intends to seek approval for an additional 12.5% capital buyback. In conclusion, positive release confirming the continuation of the 2025 growth trend also in 2026'.

On the same wavelength are the experts from Banca Akros, according to whom 'the guidance on ebitda appears solid, with the consensus positioned towards the lower end of the range and is therefore very reassuring'. In light of this, they confirm their buy rating and target price at EUR 27 per share.

Akros also recalls that on Monday Agimeg, a specialised publication that provides news, data, in-depth analysis and detailed reports on the legal gaming sector in Italia, reported the February results of the online casino segment. Gross Gaming Revenues, i.e. wagers net of winnings, increased by 18.1% to EUR 284.2 million compared to EUR 204.6 million. The figure, according to Akros, "appears solid and follows a similar performance in January (+18.9%), accelerating from the +16% recorded in 2025 as a whole". Furthermore, Lottomatica's market share stood at 31.7%, an all-time high, up 60 basis points from 30.1% in January and significantly higher than the 30.6% average for 2025. The lead over the second largest operator, Flutter Entertainment (including Snaitech), increased to 6.2%, compared to January, with Flutter at 25.5%. Therefore in a context where Online Casino (iGaming) accounts for more than 50% of Lottomatica's expected total gaming in 2025, "the growth trends and market share performance highlighted above are very solid and in line with our forecasts. We assess the news positively'.