Luxury and Germany hold back the districts

The other sectors closed the quarter down on average. Mechanics contained their losses to 3.7%, while metallurgy suffered a 19.2% reduction in export flows, influenced by both the slowdown in volumes and the partial return of production prices, which in turn was linked to the drop in energy costs, a reduction that reduced price lists and therefore receipts.

Looking at a broader period, in spite of the international difficulties, export levels in Q1 still remained at historically high levels. In comparison with Q1 2019, in fact, only fashion intermediate goods are still below that threshold.

By far the brightest sector in this timeframe is the agri-food industry, thanks to uninterrupted growth also favoured by rising producer prices, export values are almost 50 per cent higher than at the beginning of 2019.

For metallurgy, fashion consumer goods, other intermediate goods and household appliances the progress was about 20 %; followed by mechanics (+17.5 %), furniture (+15.2 %), metal products (+11.5 %) and construction products and materials (+10.5 %).

Among the growing districts in Q1 2024 are more sector specialisations and more territorial localisations: in addition to the Goldsmiths' of Arezzo, in fashion, the other two Italian goldsmiths' clusters, Vicenza and Valenza, the Clothing of Empoli and the Knitwear and Apparel of Perugia, stand out; in agro-food, many districts stood out, led by Tuscan Olive Oil and the Sweets of Alba and Cuneo; in mechanics, the best performances were achieved by Instrumental Mechanics in Milan and Monza e Brianza, Food Machinery in Parma and Paper Machinery in Lucca; in transport means, two Tuscan districts were brilliant, Nautica in Viareggio and Camperistica della Val d'Elsa.

Among the districts that have been most affected by the worsening demand conditions are some important districts specialised in the fashion system, which have suffered from the drop in consumption, but also from a phase of normalisation of stocks after the strong accumulation in the last two years, as well as from the reorganisation of logistics platforms. This is the case, for example, of the Leather Goods and Footwear in Florence. Significant reductions were also suffered by the export flows of Brescia Metals, held back by the slowdown in the German market but conditioned by the drop in producer prices.

The analysis of outlet markets returns a chiaroscuro picture. The Italian districts were particularly affected by the difficulties encountered in Europe, suffering reductions in sales in France (-4% at current prices in the first quarter of 2024), but especially in Germany (-8.7%). On the other hand, the significant drop in flows towards Switzerland (-43.6%) is attributable precisely to two Tuscan districts, Leather Goods and Footwear in Florence and Apparel in Empoli, both probably influenced by the logistical choices of important operators active in this area.

The loss of ground in Russia continued (-22.1%), which mainly affected the mechanical engineering districts.

Against these slowing markets, however, there are also areas that are bucking the trend, first and foremost the United States (+4.3%) and China (+5.3%), while some emerging markets such as the United Arab Emirates (+29.3%), Vietnam (+94.8%), Mexico (+21.6%) and Hong-Kong, in addition to Turkey (+126%, thanks to gold), also performed brilliantly. In several of these trade destinations, Empoli's Clothing, Florence's Leather Goods and Footwear, and Milan and Monza and Brianza's Instrumental Mechanics stood out.

In the second half of the year," the analysts write in the report, "the good competitive positioning of the districts leads us to believe that district exports can resume a good pace of growth, thanks to the restart of world trade. However,' they clarify, 'these expectations are subject to great uncertainty, given the presence in the current scenario of various risk factors, from geopolitical tensions to the two conflicts on Europe's doorstep, to the elections in the United States.