Luxury rebounds with Cucinelli and Moncler, Bernstein bets on recovery

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Luxury at a brisk pace in Milan with shares of Brunello Cucinelli leading the rises, followed by Moncler. In the rest of Europe, stocks in the sector are positive, but rising more cautiously: in Paris the Lvmh, the Kering and the Hermes. in Zurich Cie Financiere Richemont Sa and in London Burberry.

The markets are betting that a solution to the conflict in the Middle East will soon be found, and so they are starting to buy luxury stocks, which had been sold off in a big way during the first days of the conflict. Analysts are betting that the recovery that began in the last months of 2025 will continue, provided of course that the war does not last too long. In this case, not only would the mood of shoppers be less inclined to shop, but tourism, which is inextricably linked to the luxury sector, would certainly drop. The loss of Middle Eastern shoppers, on the other hand, is of relative concern, since the area has a fairly marginal weight on the accounts of the major groups. The managers of the major luxury companies are instead watching the exchange rate trend more closely, with the slide of the euro against the dollar bringing a breath of fresh air. After all, the top executives of the major groups have been pointing their index fingers at the strengthening of the euro, which had risen above the $1.19 mark before the Iran war, considering it even more penalising than tariffs.

Bernstein has published a rather comforting study for Italian textile and fashion companies, conducted through data sourced with Confindustria Moda. "Total turnover growth in the first half of 2026 is expected to continue to improve (as it did in the latter part of 2025)," the experts commented, assuming that in the first six months of the year the turnover of the entire sector will only limit by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2025. "Apparel manufacturers are expected to lead the recovery over the next six months, with turnover declining to -3.6%, compared to -8.7% recorded in the second half of 2025, compared to a smaller incremental improvement for textile manufacturers (+2.3% versus +1.7%)." For Bernstein, the sector's redemption will take place in the second half of the year, but only if the war in Iran is resolved. In fact, the business house puts its hands on the table asserting that 'the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could interrupt the expected recovery path, should it continue'. For Bernstein, although luxury companies have low to medium exposure to the region, second-order impacts such as reduced travel, higher oil prices and lower consumer confidence due to a protracted conflict could threaten early signs of recovery.

In any case, the Milan and Paris fashion shows have given encouraging signals and so the countdown to the publication of the accounts for the first quarter of 2026 has already begun, with Cucinelli set to open the dances by publishing the turnover figures on 9 April. Shortly afterwards, on 16 April, the spotlight will turn to Florence, where Kering's CEO Luca De Meo will illustrate the industrial plan to relaunch the group and above all the Gucci brand.