Luxury is making a comeback; Moncler and Cucinelli are doing well in Milan

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) As the countdown to next week’s Milan Fashion Week begins, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli are making a comeback on the Milan Stock Exchange, posting the best performances on the FTSE MIB. The shares, however, are trading at price levels that remain modest and a long way from the highs recorded in 2025, when Moncler’s shares were close to 70 euros and Cucinelli’s at 130 euros.

After all, during this period, consumers have shown a certain disaffection with luxury goods in general, partly due to the aggressive pricing policies adopted by most groups in the sector in the post-Covid era, when the desire to shop was at its peak. In truth, some distinctions should be made, given that Cucinelli has never been affected by the slowdown in demand, with revenues growing at double-digit rates, whilst also benefiting from its positioning at the high end of the luxury market. Moncler has had to contend with weaker demand, but all in all has held up well, posting a 3 per cent rise in revenue last year at current exchange rates and, in the first half of this year, a 5 per cent rise, again at current exchange rates. Turning to share prices, Ferragamo shares are underperforming today, although they had performed well yesterday. Looking to Paris, where the sector’s major players are listed, LVMH, Hermès and Kering are down slightly. In Asia, Prada rose to HK$39 (+0.8%).

Meanwhile, Brunello Cucinelli, founder of the group of the same name, speaking at a conference at the Stock Exchange, reassured the audience that the luxury sector is merely undergoing a period of rebalancing in the wake of the pandemic. “We had an unexpectedly strong 2021, 2022 and 2023. It’s clear that we needed to rebalance,” he commented, whilst also confirming the growth estimates released in July for the company of the same name, namely an increase in turnover for 2026 in the range of 10 per cent to 11 per cent. “I confirm everything we said during the July conference call; things are going very well,” the entrepreneur told Radiocor.

In recent days, in Milan, analysts and investors specialising in the luxury sector had the opportunity to meet with managers from the industry’s leading groups during meetings organised first by Mediobanca on Tuesday and then by UBS yesterday. In addition, several updates were released today. Firstly, Bernstein, whilst leaving its target price at €57.50, has decided to raise its recommendation on Moncler to ‘Outperform’. “Another period of seasonal weakness has brought Moncler’s valuation close to historic lows”, explained the investment bank’s analysts, noting that the shares are trading close to their post-IPO low, driven by a combination of seasonal sales trends and the broader downturn in the luxury sector.

According to Bernstein, as regards Moncler, ‘much of the bad news is already priced into the share price’. First and foremost, there is weak demand in Europe, where tourist numbers have fallen sharply due to the ongoing wars and the visa restrictions announced by the Chinese authorities. “The EMEA region was the main source of weakness last quarter” for Moncler, which, according to Bernstein, could continue to be so in the third quarter of 2026, particularly given the unusually warm weather across Europe. “However, this weakness appears to have been priced in”, the experts pointed out, whilst still forecasting a slowdown in European business of around 6.6 per cent for the whole of 2026, compared with the 4.5 per cent growth previously predicted and following the 8 per cent decline in the brand’s sales in the second quarter. Bernstein emphasised that, beyond the EMEA region, “the growth trend remains solid. Our key demand indicators in Japan, Korea and China remain positive, suggesting healthy momentum across Asia. In the United States, the opening of Moncler’s flagship store on Fifth Avenue could have a positive impact on the entire business in the coming quarters.” The experts praised the service launched at the New York store, “Moncler to Measure”, which has already been rolled out at the Paris store as well. A real “step forward in meeting high-end demand for greater personalisation”. Furthermore, the report adds, “Stone Island is finally transforming from a problem into an opportunity”. The brand has reported growth in total direct-to-consumer sales over the last three quarters, underpinned by a strong performance in Asia, despite slower demand in key European markets. Of course, the company admits, even for the brand the weather could be a wild card. “We do not factor in a favourable winter in our forecasts: a more pronounced sequential cooling in the fourth quarter of 2026 would be supportive, whilst a prolonged warm autumn remains the main short-term downside risk.”