Fisco

Manoeuvre 2025 in the final rush: record flat tax and VAT numbers approaching 2 million

With the increase of the income threshold to 35,000 euro for employees and pensioners, the VAT numbers in the flat-rate scheme aim to exceed 2 million

4' min read

4' min read

The government and majority's appetite for flat taxes does not stop. The final approval of the manoeuvre brings with it at least three interventions aimed at enlarging or creating from scratch three flat taxes.

While waiting to find the resources to reduce the three current rates and even accelerate towards a reduction in the number of tax brackets towards a pure flat tax, mini-flat taxes are increasingly taking shape.

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Starting with employees and pensioners interested in self-employed, professional or small business work. In this case, with the strong pressure of the League, which actually would have wanted an even more pronounced intervention by raising the limit of revenue or remuneration from the current 85,000 euro to 100,000 euro, comes the raising for 2025 only of the income threshold that allows access to the flat-rate regime for VAT numbers.

The modification of the current income limit

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The current income limit of EUR 30,000 is, in fact, increased to EUR 35,000. In prospective terms, it means widening even further the meshes of the regime that provides for a 15% tax rate (or 5% for new activities) and in which the dynamics of growth of entries have been gradually increasing in recent years. Suffice it to say that, according to the tax returns filed by 31 October last year (and referring to the 2023 tax year), 1.77 million VAT numbers have indicated the application of the flat-rate taxation, which is characterised by a predetermined percentage of the costs to be deducted and which varies according to the Ateco codes to which they belong.

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The dynamics of VAT registration

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The dynamics of VAT account openings in the current year also testify to the continued high appeal of the flat-rate scheme. From January to September, 199,700 mini-businesses, self-employed persons and professionals have so far chosen the flat-rate regime when opening their VAT positions. Numbers that consolidate the trend of a regime chosen by one out of every two new VAT numbers, a percentage that rises to 70.5% if only the figure for natural persons, who are the only ones who can choose the flat-rate scheme. On balance, this means that in all likelihood the loosening of restrictions on the income threshold for employees and pensioners will further push entries in 2025, thus allowing the overall number to break through the two million mark.

Manovra, flat tax: tetto a 35mila euro per i dipendenti

The widening of the mesh on the separate taxation of tips

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In this crescendo, there are also flat taxes that do not affect self-employed and corporate income. In fact, from the 2025 tax year there will also be a double broadening of the cordons on the separate taxation of tips received by employees working in tourism, including hotels, bars and restaurants.

The favourable measure had been introduced as of 2023, providing for a 5% taxation on tips on condition that the taxpayer's total income did not exceed EUR 50,000 in the previous tax period and that the fees from tips did not exceed 25% of the total income. The manoeuvre now intervenes precisely on these two parameters. Firstly, the taxpayer's total income may be up to EUR 75,000, while the limit of income received in the year for the relevant work to which the substitute tax is to be applied will be raised to 30%. Awaiting the data from the tax statistics of the Finance Ministry, the first trends collected by Caf Acli (see 'Il Sole 24 Ore' of 5 August) show how the average value of the tax-free gratuity is worth 943 euro in the 730s (few in fact: 0.33% of the 720 thousand models processed). However, the regions with the highest average amount of tax-free tips are Lombardy (1,569 euro per year) and Liguria (1,082 euro), while most of the workers who took advantage of the bonus (88.2%) have an income below 30,000 euro per year.

The health case

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There is also a third axis on which the manoeuvre intervenes. There is also a flat tax of 5 per cent that will be used to detax overtime paid to nurses of companies and bodies of the National Health Service. The substitute tax (of Irpef and regional and municipal surtaxes) will be applied by the withholding agent to remuneration paid as of 1 January next. A way to facilitate overtime work in the face of the workloads on nursing staff. EUR 53 million for 2025, EUR 57.6 million for 2026 and EUR 57.3 million annually from 2027 have been set aside to cover the measure.

The last year's growth

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All this after a year that has seen the number of flat taxes grow and spread even further, also by virtue of the progressive Irpef taxation substitute levies that have been envisaged for the arrangement with creditors for VAT numbers and for the special amnesty, i.e. the amnesty that was introduced last October precisely to encourage access to the arrangement and that was constructed with a mechanism of increasing rates according to the decreasing reliability of taxpayers, measured through tax report cards (the Isa).

The double bottom attempt

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There remains, in short, a twofold attempt to try to bring out the undeclared or to facilitate an additional income component, also as a productivity lever. A tendency to multiply escapes from the Irpef, just when debates on the reduction are underway and the implementation of the tax delegation is still open.

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