Manoeuvre 2025: employees, the self-employed and pensioners. Who wins and who loses

The 28-billion-euro manoeuvre that has been given the green light by the Chamber of Deputies and now sails towards final approval by the Senate (expected on 28 December) is certainly inspired by the utmost prudence with regard to public accounts, but at the same time it envisages important innovations, some of which were already present in the original text approved by the Council of Ministers on 15 October, and others introduced during the examination by the Chamber of Deputies Budget Committee, which were then adopted by the Chamber of Deputies. Novelties that affect both families and businesses, as well as the world of employment and self-employment.

As much as 17.6 billion is absorbed by the confirmation of the two measures already in force that are now made structural: the tax wedge cut and the three-rate Irpef. The novelty with respect to the current wording is that the cut in the wedge benefits employees with incomes up to 20,000 euro through the recognition of a bonus, while for incomes up to 40,000 euro it is acted upon through a deduction, which is therefore of an exclusively fiscal nature, with décalage. The benefit will affect 1.3 million more workers than last year because the income threshold previously only applied up to 35 thousand euro. As far as the Irpef is concerned, there is the stabilisation of the rates on three brackets, 23% for incomes up to 28 thousand, 35% for incomes above 28 thousand euro and up to 50 thousand, and 43% for incomes above 50 thousand euro. The regional and local surtaxes, which weigh heavily on the final balance, will continue to be applied on the old four brackets until 2027. On the other hand, the further cut from 35 to 33% in the tax rate, which mainly affects the middle class, has been postponed. For civil servants, there is also the effect of the financing of two contractual rounds initiated by the 1.5 billion allocated for 2025 (20 billion to 2030).

Deductions change, with a squeeze for incomes over 75,000 euro. There is a safeguard clause that, in addition to healthcare expenses, is now also extended to deductions for investments in start-ups and innovative SMEs. The income brackets on which the new limitation on deductible expenses will be triggered are two: from 75,001 to 100,000 euro and from 100,001. In the first bracket, the cap on deductible expenses will be up to a maximum of €14,000. In the second bracket, on the other hand, the ceiling will be €8,000. To encourage the birth rate, there is also the 'newborn bonus', a one-off payment of €1,000 for each newborn child in households with an Isee under €40,000. The crèche bonus is extended to all and made structural (again for households with Isee up to 40,000 euro). Parental leave is extended to 80 per cent, for three months instead of the current two. The 'Dote famiglia' fund for extracurricular activities for young people from 6 to 14 years of age in households with Isee up to 15 thousand euro has been introduced. Resources also for supporting the needy and for purchases with the 'Dedicated to you' card.

This is the main change introduced during consideration by the Chamber. The IRES is reduced from 24 to 20 per cent for companies that set aside at least 80 per cent of their profits in 2024 and reinvest at least 30 per cent (and not less than 24 per cent of their profits in 2023) in the company. There are, however, conditions to be met. First of all, the minimum investment must be EUR 20,000 and must be made in Italy by the end of 2025. From the employment point of view, companies, which must not have resorted to redundancy funds, must maintain or increase the average number of workers employed in the previous three-year period and make new permanent hires that increase the workforce by at least 1% (with a minimum of one unit for those with few employees). Changes are coming to the Transition 4.0 plan: a 'tap' mechanism is introduced to close access to tax credits when a ceiling set at 2.2 billion is exceeded. However, investments (made in 2025 with a tail-end date of 30 June 2026) are saved if they are 'booked' with a down payment of at least 20 per cent by the date of publication of the budget law. Transition 5.0 also changes, with the rate for investments between 2.5 and 10 million being raised to 45%. And the subsidy for the purchase of photovoltaic panels is increased. On the other hand, the extension for the conclusion of investments from 31 December 2025 to 30 April 2026 is skipped.

The threshold for entry to the Flat Tax for employees and pensioners rises from EUR 30,000 to EUR 35,000. With an amendment made by the government, the limit of employee or pension income beyond which the 15% or 5% flat tax for new activities cannot be accessed is set at 35,000 euro. The web tax will only apply to large companies with revenues above 750 million, the cryptocurrency tax remains at 26%. Taxes on games and betting increase. The increase in the cost allowable in deduction for new hires is extended for three years to 20%, raised to 30% for young people and women. The Nuova Sabatini is refinanced and the tax credit for investments in the Zes for the Mezzogiorno is extended to 2025. The tax relief on productivity bonuses is also extended for three years (from 10% to 5%). The ceiling on fringe benefits rises to 1,000 euro for everyone, 2,000 for those who have children. Increased amounts for new employees who agree to move more than 100 kilometres from home. The detaxation limit on tips that waiters receive from customers rises from 25 to 30 per cent. Extension of the guarantee fund for SMEs. A fund with 3 million Euro over three years is also planned to support Ilva induced enterprises. A 70 million ad hoc fund to finance workers' participation in management and profits arrives. The fund for families who are victims of work accidents is increased and there is also a clampdown on the abuse of the Naspi. Flat tax at 5 per cent for nurses' overtime.