Manoeuvre 2025: Irpef cut of up to EUR 50,000 to alleviate taxes hypothesised

Easing the Irpef tax for incomes up to EUR 50,000. This is the new challenge that the government intends to tackle in the context of the next economic manoeuvre. There remains, however, the not insignificant problem of where to find the resources with which to carry out this operation. An operation that, if eventually carried out, would represent a new step forward compared to the last intervention that reduced - but only for this year - the rates from four to three, with a benefit especially for low incomes.

Counting in hand, the resources to cover the operation may not be small. Everything, however, will depend on the success of the 'two-year composition agreement' operation. The government has simplified and made convenient this instrument designed for VAT numbers, but in concrete terms the first payment deadline with adhesions is scheduled for 31 next year and only after that will it be possible to verify the resources.

Meanwhile, the hunt is already on for resources to confirm what has already been approved for this year. Not only the cut in the wedge and the first tranche of the Irpef rebate, but also the decontributions for working mothers. It is precisely on this last chapter that the first certainties seem to be arriving. Not only to confirm the relief, now limited to just one year for working mothers with only two children, but also to extend it from employees to professional workers, to mothers with VAT numbers.

Regarding the new Irpef challenge, the deputy minister for the economy, Maurizio Leo, had not concealed since last November, when the reduction from 4 to 3 rates was decided, the aim of making further progress for incomes up to 50,000 euro. A mantra he repeated several times, even in a recent interview. "The new reliefs,' he said, 'will have to concern the income bracket from 35,000 euro, where the benefit of the cut in the tax wedge is exhausted, to 50,000 euro, even something more. In practice on the middle class.

Currently, there are three Irpef rates: the first, at 23%, stops at 28 thousand euro; the second at 35% applies between 28 thousand and 50 thousand euro; the third at 43% above this threshold. The goal when fully operational is to go down to just two rates, reshaping the deductions to avoid penalties. However, this seems difficult to achieve at present. Instead, it may be possible to reduce the intermediate rate of 35% by one or two points. This project is, however, inextricably linked to the two-year preventive agreement, i.e. the mechanism whereby VAT holders can decide to agree - based on specific category parameters - on the payments to be made over the two years. It will be necessary to understand how much revenue this instrument will yield this year and thus how much it will be able to guarantee next year as well in a practically automatic manner. This, combined with the trend in tax revenue, which at the moment seems to be trotting along at a good pace with revenues that in the first six months were 13 billion higher than in the first half of 2023, could allow for the Irpef lowering.