Manoeuvre, the families' game is played on Irpef deductions and children's allowances

For a 'family-friendly' financial manoeuvre it will not be enough to cut the Irpef. The personal tax cut the government is working on will, in fact, act on an individual level. But in order to assess the actual aid to young couples and households with children, it will be necessary to see in detail the other interventions announced by the deputy minister for the economy, Maurizio Leo: a possible revision of deductions linked to the composition of the household and support for the purchase and rental of the house of young couples.

Let's go in order and start with the measures that have less nuanced contours (the government must send the budgetary planning document to the EU by 20 October).

The first objective - repeatedly announced - is to reduce from 35 to 33% the Irpef rate on incomes from 28 thousand to 50 thousand euro, a bracket in which there are 9.6 million taxpayers. The cost to the public coffers - the National Foundation of Chartered Accountants estimates - would be EUR 1.2 billion. The maximum tax saving per capita 440 euro per year, for those who declare 50 thousand euro. However, based on Finance data, it can be calculated that more than half of the beneficiaries (5.3 million) have an income of around 31,200 euro. That translates into a lower Irpef of EUR 64 per year.

Resources permitting, it will be possible to go as far as the rate reduction to EUR 60,000, i.e. in an area that today is taxed at 43 per cent and from 2026 would have 33 per cent. There are 940 thousand people here and the weight of the cut for the Treasury would be around 750 million. These taxpayers would have a more robust advantage: from a minimum of EUR 440 (for those reporting EUR 50,000) up to EUR 1,440 (for those reporting EUR 60,000).

Then there is the question of whether the tax cut will be sterilised for the 2.1 million taxpayers who declare more than 60,000 euro of income and paid 38% of all Italian Irpef in 2024. Reducing the tax for them too would cost 3 billion. Deputy Minister Leo at Speciale Telefisco, on 18 September, indicated 13.6 million potential beneficiaries - thus including those over 60,000 euro in the audience - but also emphasised the need for coverage. At the moment it seems difficult to rule out some form of neutralisation of the tax rebate, not least because it would risk leaving nothing for the other expenditure chapters, starting with business support. It will be a political choice.