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Manoeuvre, from the Irpef cut to the mothers' bonus for the self-employed: the options at the majority summit

The budget law for 2025 is on the government's table, with proposals to cut Irpef, extend the mothers' bonus to self-employed women and possible interventions on pensions

by Redazione Roma

29 August 2024

Manovra, Bernini "Rifinanzieremo il taglio del cuneo fiscale"

3' min read

3' min read

Supporting workers' incomes, with the cut in the wedge and the cut in the Irpef, with the reduction in rates that, if an additional 2.5 billion euro of resources can be found compared to the past, could also be extended to incomes up to 50-60 thousand euro. And then there are the families with children, with interventions aimed at fostering the birth rate and starting with the confirmation of the mothers' bonus, which will be extended from employees to VAT numbers.

Moreover, although it is not part of the manoeuvre, the delegated decree on Irpef-Ires is on its way to Parliament in September: it reorganises these two taxes for some technical aspects, but above all it foresees the arrival in January of the 'Befana Bonus' of 80 euro for the lowest incomes, pending a tax relief intervention on thirteenth month's salaries. The Meloni government is at work on the manoeuvre.

The two steps in view

In many ministries, ministers have met with their technical departments to outline proposals and savings. Meetings between technicians on the subject of pensions, however, are only scheduled in a week's time.

But before the actual launch, the manoeuvre will have to pass two different steps. The first step is political, it concerns the definition of the guidelines, which will be the focus of the discussion scheduled for Friday between the premier and the two deputy ministers, Salvini and Tajani. And certainly work and children are and will remain the priority.

The second step is financial: the framework will be defined in the Structural Budget Plan. It is a new document that serves to define the seven-year adjustment required by the new EU rules on accounts, an adjustment that is worth about 10 billion a year and that Italy has already considered in the forecasts included in April in the Def. The new document, the Psb, will arrive in Brussels around 20 September, but first it will be defined in the middle of the month and then brought before Parliament, which will have to approve it with resolutions.

The approach to the manoeuvre changes: the Nadef, i.e. the Def Update Note containing the new macroeconomic estimates, disappears. But above all, the contents also change with the new indicators foreseen by the EU, especially in the 'programmatic' tables. In Italy's case they will indicate the path for 7 years, although they can be updated every year.

Waiting for arrangement

It will be this economic framework within which Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti intends to move. The manoeuvre, also thanks to the good revenue trend, will certainly not be tears and blood. But it will not be wide-ranging. For now, interventions are estimated at 23 billion. They concern the reproposal of the wedge cut, worth just under 10 billion, and the first Irpef intervention, estimated at 4 billion. A further cut, this time for the Irpef rate, which is now 35% and applies up to EUR 50,000, would cost 1.1-1.2 billion per percentage point. The intervention - which is assumed to be two points and would therefore be worth between 2 and 2.5 billion - is linked to the success of the two-year composition agreement: however, the data will arrive at the end of October, after the concrete launch of the manoeuvre, and therefore it will be a connected decree that will bring any good news for taxpayers.

Parenting and denatality

Then there is the family chapter. Now the bonus for working mothers with two children only applies until December. It will also be extended and applied to women working with a VAT number, to the professions.

But it cannot be ruled out that there may also be other interventions to support parenthood and counteract the birth rate. The pensions chapter is certainly among those on which interventions are envisaged, but only after having addressed priorities and the so-called unavoidable expenses, such as resources for the renewal of public contracts.

At the moment Quota 103 has not received much support and the intention would be to propose it again, together with the other measures: the Opzione Donna, the Ape sociale, and the decontribution (the so-called Maroni bonus) for those who remain at work after the retirement age has expired.

TFR in pension funds

Also being considered is the introduction of a certain compulsoriness for the payment of severance pay into pension funds and, the most contested, lengthening of the windows for those who retire early. It is more difficult for regulations such as Quota 41, strongly desired by the League, to arrive. But the confrontation has only just begun and we have not even reached the kick-off for the concrete definition of the measures..