Self-assessment at the end of July

Revenues, in the first seven months +19.2 billion (+6.2%). Resources hunt for manoeuvre measures

The figure contains the self-assessment for the end of July. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has so far been cautious, waiting for

by Redazione Roma

5 September 2024

Dal piano strutturale alla legge di bilancio: tutte le tappe verso la manovra da 25 miliardi

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3' min read

The run-up to the manoeuvre is now in full swing. The long-awaited 'moment of truth' to find out whether tax revenues went better than expected in July has arrived. Between January and July 2024, tax revenues assessed on an accrual basis amounted to EUR 328,365 million, an increase of EUR 19,201 million compared to the same period in 2023 (+6.2%). The figures were released by the Ministry of the Economy, which says about the search for resources for the budget law. "No treasury. The figure is close to the expected one. So we are cautious'.

The Structural Budget Plan

This is also crucial for the definition of the structural budget plan, which the government intends to approve in the middle of the month. The text must then be sent to the EU by 20 September. But if there is a certain elasticity on the date in Brussels - many countries will find it difficult to meet this deadline - what makes the drafting of the plan more challenging is the knot of the necessary reforms for those who, like Italy, intend to ask for the plan to be extended to seven years: on this the confrontation with Europe certainly appears challenging.

The dialogue between the EU Commission and the states, they explain in Brussels, has so far been 'calm' with respect to the trajectories indicated to the individual countries. On the other hand, there is a more complex confrontation with those who intend to ask for the plans to be extended from 4 to 7 years, "especially with respect to the reforms that allow the extension of the duration of the plans and that must guarantee greater fiscal sustainability".

The end of July self-assessment

The figure being released in these hours contains the self-assessment for the end of July, which could show a higher flow than expected. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has so far been cautious, waiting precisely to see this figure.

The resource node

The resource framework meanwhile is uncertain. On the table are the 2 billion from the spending review and the expected resources (up to 1 billion) from cutting tax expenditures. For the rest, the hunt for resources is on and moving in every direction. For some items, such as the possible revenues expected from the arrangement with VAT numbers, we must wait until the end of October.

Priorities

On the other hand, the priorities are already in black and white on the menu of measures: cutting the wedge, Irpef at three rates and perhaps something more for middle-income earners, but also extending the decontribution for mothers to self-employed women, in addition to minimum pensions. Work is also being done to avoid making cuts in healthcare, for which the aim is to raise an extra 2-2.5 billion. But alongside these fixed points, hypotheses and simulations are flowing in from day to day. Giorgetti does not flinch. "The manoeuvre? We are working on it, I read a lot of strange, fictional things that I don't even know,' he said. But first we need 'the framework', then the interventions will be declined, the minister restarted. Who relied on a football metaphor: 'It's like the football market, first there is the football market, then comes reality; in the summer everyone writes something, the bilanciomercato, then comes the moment when you do the things you have to do'.

Pensioni

The topic of pensions will be there. "Like all other expenditure items it will be dealt with. It will also be discussed in the structural plan,' Giorgetti assured. The dossier is delicate and the majority parties are already pressing. Forza Italia is not giving up on the minimum pensions: 'The revaluation already done in 2023 must also be done in 2024,' said the president of the Azzurri deputies Paolo Barelli. The leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, also opened up to support low paychecks, but he reiterated the Carroccio's no to widening the windows for early retirement: "We want to avoid any possible worsening" with "more delayed pensions or penalisations". They then look at the self-employed. The League's idea is to further extend the flat tax, brought this year to €85,000. 'We are studying the possibility of extending the flat tax to 15 per cent, up to 100 thousand euros,' Salvini announced. A theme that also emerged at the League meeting held in Montecitorio with group leaders, government members, and many parliamentarians. Finally, from Noi moderati comes the proposal to double the ceiling of deductions for school expenses incurred by families from 800 to 1,600 euro.

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