Marchesini (Assoclima): 'From 2026 a major boost to the works'

"We expect an increase in bonus. The exact quantification will depend on each case, but the effect of the new Conto termico will be an increase in the incentive compared to 2.0. For this reason, I expect a major boost for the market starting next year'. Maurizio Marchesini, president of Assoclima, the association of air-conditioning system manufacturers federated to Anima Confindustria, welcomes the start of the new contribution mechanism for energy efficiency and predicts an important effect for the electric heat pumps, central to the new system: 'I expect that the ceiling of 900 million per year, never reached in the history of the Conto termico, will be reached during 2026.

More than the quantification of contributions, however, Marchesini looks at a passage more related to the incentive's rules of engagement, the one that includes 'add on' and bivalent heat pumps among the subsidisable products: "This is a novelty that stems from an observation we made. Today it makes no sense to scrap a gas boiler that is less than five years old. Thus, the addition of the heat pump to the boiler can also be incentivised, and that is the concept of add on, or the installation of a boiler in combination with a heat pump, and that is the concept of bivalent. Obviously in an intelligent integration logic that always sees the heat pump as the primary generator'.

The wait for this measure is greater because the system of home tax rebates has been showing signs of slowing down for months. The last budget law cut the rebates, aligning them for all types of intervention to 50 and 36 per cent. The next one will cut them even further, to 36 and 30 per cent. In this context, Marchesini assumes a much greater interest on the part of private individuals than in the past: 'I expect that the new thermal account will also be used by private individuals in all cases where it will be allowed, because it is the only incentive that lowers the initial cost of the investment. With today's tax deductions we are at 50 per cent over ten years, while the subsidies can be paid in one lump sum. For heat pumps, this is a decisive difference because the main problem remains the initial investment cost. Not everyone has the possibility of bearing that cost and the heat bill gives the possibility of lowering it'.

Having said that, however, the hope is that news on tax rebates will also arrive with the manoeuvre: 'Clearly it would help to confirm the old set-up and not make a new cut,' explains Marchesini, 'but we are still calling for a review of bonuses, to reward the most efficient technologies. We can talk about how much, but the current linear incentive is no good'. Returning to the Conto termico, the considerable interest is also confirmed by another datum: "Already since March," says the Assoclima president, "we have been seeing works that have stopped waiting for the Conto termico, because it was understood that important contributions would arrive. This is why I expect 2026 to start with a boost from the new measure'. There is still the issue of the application rules: "We are now waiting for the rules implementing the legislation, but we hope that they will be finalised quickly".