Cybersecurity

Mastercard: 2030 year of AI agentica, when software will pay for us

The market will be worth $155 billion by 2030 and cybercrime risks will grow. The solution, according to the international payment circuit, is to play ahead with technology

by Luca Salvioli

Luca Corti, Country Manager di Mastercard per l’Italia

3' min read

3' min read

Now that artificial intelligence agents can, and increasingly will, do transactions for us, the payment security scenario becomes more complicated. Agents are the evolution of the simple artificial intelligence chatbot. Chatbots converse with us. Agents, they act. We can ask them to check in for a flight. Find and book the best sushi in a city area. They do repeated sequential actions. Until payment.

The white paper Securing Tomorrow by Mastercard imagines 2030 as the age of 'agent AI', in which autonomous software will manage purchases, payments and services. The market will be worth $155 billion (Bank of America Global Research figure), but criminals will also use these technologies for fraud and attacks on a global scale.

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Already today, the phenomenon has enormous dimensions: in 2024, cybercrime damage reached 9.5 trillion dollars, the third largest 'economy' in the world after the United States and China; by 2029, it will rise to 15.6 trillion (+64%). Attacks on critical infrastructures - healthcare, energy, telecommunications - grew by 30% in 2023 alone and will continue to rise by double digits. Multiplying the risks will be the 40 billion connected devices expected by 2030.

'We are investing a lot to make our customers trust us, payment has to be secure even in these new scenarios,' explained Luca Corti, Mastercard's Country Manager for Italy at a meeting with the press on the sidelines of the Venice Film Festival. 'In 2024 in Italy, digital payments will overtake cash. And there are more and more devices playing a leading role in this transition, such as Nfc rings'.

The answer to the growth of these digital solutions is called 'tokenisation'. It means protecting sensitive card data with unique, secure and dynamic credentials. "In Italy, this is already a reality for about 30 per cent of Mastercard circuit transactions, with the goal of reaching 100 per cent by 2030. It applies to physical payments, but also online, on websites or apps'. Looking ahead, from a predominantly protective tool, tokenisation will become an enabling strategic infrastructure for a wider ecosystem, which will include autonomous, AI-driven payment scenarios integrated with digital identity and biometrics.

"The goal is to anticipate fraud," Corti continues, "We can give a scoring to the transaction. Probably the human transaction will behave differently from that of a genuine agent, and therefore the intelligent infrastructure that sees a transaction that is out of the usual pattern will raise the score that the bank will then decide to use together with other key data.

Mastercard is collaborating with leading artificial intelligence and commerce leaders, including Stripe, Google and Ant International's Antom, to make secure agent transactions accessible and scalable. By the holiday season, all US Mastercard cardholders will be enabled in the Mastercard Agent Pay programme, with a global rollout to follow. Citi and U.S. Bank Mastercard cardholders will be able to experience AI-powered shopping, with vendors and agent commerce enablers such as PayOS and other industry players coming on board.

Together with the FIDO Alliance and its Payments Working Group, Mastercard and other industry leaders are developing a verifiable credential standard for payments that confirms transaction details such as amount, merchant and product. This ensures that all parties involved in a transaction can be certain that it has been approved by the acquirer, paving the way for a safer, smoother and more reliable basis for payments agents.

Among the tools is Agent Toolkit, available from Mastercard Developers, a toolkit that enables AI assistants and agent tools to access and interpret Mastercard API documentation using structured, machine-readable content. This supports integration with platforms such as Claude, Cursor and GitHub Copilot.

On the attack front, Corti explains, the strategy is based on acquisitions: 'In the last five years we have made acquisitions worth about 17.5 billion. For example Recorded Future, for $2.65 billion, which is able to monitor the dark web. We receive 200 attacks per minute, so our strategy is to prevent, to play the attack in a logic of open innovation, that is, looking for the most innovative companies on the market'.

According to the report, cybercrime could cost the world over $15bn by 2029, and where the average cost of a data breach is already $4.88m, adaptive AI and threat intelligence, as well as quantum-resistant technologies, will define the next generation of digital security.

On the Atm cash withdrawal front, Mastercard has launched a project with NCR Atleos and ITCARD that allows smartphone withdrawals via CDCVM, without card or PIN: the user authenticates on the phone and initiates the contactless transaction, 20% faster. The trial is underway in Poland and global roll-out is planned for 2026.

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