Mediaset beats Rai in the audience race during the Christmas and New Year holidays

Rai relies on the Winter Olympics and the Sanremo Festival for a recovery in a February that it hopes will be sparkling with blue medals. In the meantime, however, it is Mediaset that wins the audience game of the last festive season. During the days that the advertising lists christen 'Le Strenne', the group led by Pier Silvio Berlusconi was preferred to Rai. And so, in the period between 14 December and 3 January, according to Studio Frasi's processing of Auditel data, the Cologno Monzese group finished ahead of Rai both in the total day and in prime time, overturning a balance historically favourable to the public service.

In the total day Mediaset reaches 38.6% share against Rai's 35.6%. There was a bigger gap in prime time, where Mediaforeurope reached 42.4% against Rai's 34.4%. "This is the first time this has happened in prime time, which is quite a resounding result considering that even evaluating the audience of the generalist networks alone Mediaset, Canale 5, Italia 1 and Rete 4 have more followers than Rai 1, Rai 2 and Rai 3," commented Francesco Siliato, media analyst at Studio Frasi. In 24 hours, instead, Mediaset's supremacy in the Strenne 2025-26 confirms that of the two previous years, but Rai's three generalists are more followed than Mediaset's three and Rai 1 has more listeners than Canale 5. The picture, as mentioned, changes radically in prime time, where strong programmes - such as La Ruota della Fortuna - pushed the Mediaset flagship to cross the audience finish line first.

After 10.30 p.m. Rai 1 managed to regain ground, returning to be the most-watched network in the night-time segment, but the recovery was not enough. Rai 2 and Rai 3 remain in fact stable behind Italia 1 and Rete 4, contributing to an overall negative balance for the public service. Rai 2's figure in prime time is emblematic: last among the generalist channels, including La 7, with a share that does not even reach 4%.

The medium-term comparison is perhaps even more eloquent. In two years, Studio Frasi certifies, against an overall drop in television ratings of 5%, Mediaset loses 1.5%, while RAI drops 9.3%. Mediaset's three generalist channels grew by 7%, Rai's lost 8%.

The trend is also consolidated when looking at the first 119 days of the season (14 September to 10 January 2026): Mediaset is the most-watched both over 24 hours and in prime time. A net reversal compared to the same period last year, when it was Rai that led prime time. And making the data even more significant is a final detail: "A rare event over such a long period," explains Siliato, "Channel 5 is the network most viewed by the Italian public, both in the daily average and in the prime time slot in the evening.