Mercosur, Lula's ultimatum: either the EU signs now, or everything is off

They reappeared in front of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, occupying the road that runs alongside the hemicycle. A dozen or so French tractors lit the fuse of a protest destined to go up north, once again towards Brussels, where about a thousand vehicles and up to 10,000 farmers are expected in the next few hours, a few steps away from the Europe Building that will host the EU leaders. Placards and slogans against Europe and its agreement with the Mercosur, now one step away from the finishing line but - after more than 26 years of negotiations - still hanging on a fragile consensus, are popping up on the trailers.

From Roma and Paris came an unequivocal message: Giorgia Meloni and Emmanuel Macron have pulled out, distancing themselves from the race of Ursula von der Leyen, determined to close the deal within the year despite a qualified majority that is now missing. Making the picture even more tense is the ultimatum from Brasilia: 'If we do not close now, we will not sign while I am president,' warned Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Sealing the agreement in the next few days 'is premature': Meloni made this clear to the Chamber of Deputies, before leaving for Brussels, specifying that Italy does not intend to veto, but neither does it intend to endorse a text without adequate guarantees for farmers. The knot remains the package of safeguards, which must be approved before proceeding on the trade agreement. If 'other weeks are needed, we will take them,' explained the premier, in the hope - shared also by the ministers Antonio Tajani and Francesco Lollobrigida - that the favourable conditions will mature at the beginning of 2026. Beyond the Alps - under pressure from the agricultural world, besieged by the opposition and with the 2027 presidential elections already in the background - Macron's tone became even sharper: in the face of any coup by Brussels, French resistance will be 'very determined'.

The raw nerve, on the Rome-Paris axis, concerns the reciprocity guarantees - also supported by Cia-Agricoltori Italiani - and the safeguard and mirror clauses designed to ensure that South American products also meet European standards, from pesticides to food safety. A first sign in the desired direction came in the evening from the preliminary agreement found between the European Parliament and national governments with a compromise that introduces an 8% threshold on imports from Latin American countries and strengthens commitments on production and phytosanitary controls. Brussels is claiming the progress made in recent months: progress that von der Leyen herself - together with the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and Commissioner Christophe Hansen - will also reiterate to the farmers marching in Brussels. For Italy, however, the line is clear: what is banned in the EU cannot re-enter through the back door via imports. And this is also why Rome is asking for commitments in black and white, with a legally binding exchange of letters with its South American partners. Concerns also raised by Poland and Ireland, which, however, in the corridors of the Berlaymont Palace are dismissed as 'partly irrational', difficult to undermine even with data.

An interpretation that finds support in Berlin, where Mercosur remains a pillar of continental trade policy and the pressure to close the agreement continues. So much so that, accompanying the declarations of the chancellor's spokesman Friedrich Merz, from Cdu circles also came a more explicit warning: without a return of Germany to the role of exporting power, 'it will be impossible to sustain new financial burdens'. A warning that reveals the real plot of the game: the trade agreement is linked to the future EU budget 2028-2034 and to the entire Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which risks heavy cuts. Three weeks more or less do not change the substance of Mercosur but, is the thesis of Brussels, they can weigh heavily on the political level. Especially for Brazil.