Metalworking: production and employment slow down in the second quarter

In the metalworking sector, the faint glimmer of hope seen in the first quarter of 2026 faded in the second quarter; volumes grew by an average of 0.5 per cent compared with the previous three months and by 2.2 per cent compared with the same period in 2025; a slowdown is underway; following positive growth in April, a slowdown was recorded in May and June. Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions is affecting companies’ forecasts for the coming months, which point to a decline in production activity and a reduction in employment: 23 per cent have implemented crisis and corporate restructuring procedures, and the use of the extraordinary redundancy scheme has exceeded that of the ordinary scheme, a sign of what are now ‘structural’ difficulties.

Federmeccanica’s economic outlook report, presented yesterday in Rome, highlights that industrial production remains fragile and that signs of recovery are still patchy: in the manufacturing sector, production has risen slightly, both on a month-on-month basis (+0.4 per cent) and year-on-year (+0.5 per cent). In presenting the figures, Director-General Stefano Franchi urged caution: ‘Many companies in the metalworking sector have increased production, but have done so by reducing their margins; they have not passed on the higher costs to their selling prices. The war in Iran (which began at the end of February, ed.) had only a marginal impact on the second quarter, partly due to the use of stock, but the effects are beginning to be felt from June onwards.’ The sector’s resilience was underpinned by the manufacture of motor vehicles and trailers (+3.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter and +13.4 per cent year-on-year) and other means of transport (+2.1 per cent and +4.9 per cent respectively). Production of machinery, electronics and electrical equipment is struggling.

Exports in the metalworking sector rose by an average of 8.3 per cent in the first half of the year compared with 2025, driven by markets outside the EU (+9.9 per cent) – with a notable 4.2 per cent increase to the US, whilst exports to Asia fell – compared with those to the European Union (+6.9 per cent). However, imports grew at a faster rate (+11.9 per cent) and the trade balance stands at around 23 billion euros.

The number of CIG hours authorised by INPS fell by 22.1 per cent over the half-year, but applications for CIGS exceeded those for CIGO, at 73.1 million and 50.7 million respectively, mainly due to the increase in authorised hours for reorganisation and corporate crises (+62.6 per cent).

The survey, carried out amongst a sample of member companies, highlights a deterioration in expectations: the proportion of firms reporting an increase in their order books has fallen to 26 per cent (from 32 per cent in the previous survey), 11 per cent rate their liquidity situation as ‘bad or very bad’, whilst 20 per cent (down from 24 per cent) anticipate increases in production, compared with 27 per cent (up from 21 per cent) who expect a decline. As for the workforce, 13 per cent of firms expect increases, compared with 14 per cent who anticipate cuts. ‘Our industry is in danger, and with it the future of the country,’ summarises Vice-President Alessia Miotto. ‘We are facing a crisis in the household appliances, automotive and metallurgy sectors. We expect geopolitical tensions to have negative effects in the long term.” According to the director of the research centre, Massimo Longhi, “the situation has changed since July with the sharp rise in energy prices, which will be felt in the third quarter.”