Mid-term elections: all the key figures – the number of seats needed to win

On Tuesday 3 November, America goes to the polls for the mid-term elections, in which a large part of Congress (the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate) is up for re-election; these take place every four years halfway through the presidential term. For Donald Trump, this is the final hurdle: having already served two terms, the tycoon will not be able to stand in 2028, and the mid-term elections are his last electoral test. His name does not appear on the ballot paper, but Trump has turned the vote into a referendum on himself. “Vote as if I were on the ballot, because when I’m there, we do well,” he has been repeating for months.
* THE RENEWAL OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. All 435 constituencies are up for election, which here better reflects the will of the people, with each state electing a number of representatives proportional to its population (California leads the way, with 53 elected representatives). 218 is the magic number for a majority. At present, the Republicans hold 220 seats and the Democrats 215.
* THE SENATE ELECTION. Here, however, 35 of the 100 seats are up for election, and each state elects two senators. A majority in the Senate requires 51 seats. Currently, the Conservatives hold 53 seats, compared to 47 for the Democrats.
* THE NEW CONGRESS. It will be the 120th in US history and will take office in January 2027.
* THE MID-TERM CURSE – Mid-term elections usually penalise the incumbent president. In modern history, the incumbent president’s party has only managed to break the curse on three occasions: in 1934 under Franklin Delano Roosevelt, in 1998 under Bill Clinton and in 2002 under George W. Bush. 
* OBSERVERS. Trump wants to send 1,000 of them to polling stations to monitor voting operations, in what has already been described as “the largest election monitoring operation in the history of the US Department of Justice”.
* LOCAL ELECTIONS. On Election Day, 3 November, Americans in 36 US states are also called upon to elect their governors. Among the most significant races are the contest to succeed Gavin Newsom as governor of California, and the Texas race between the Republican Greg Abbott and the Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
* A FLOOD OF REFERENDUMS. Voters in 40 states are also set to vote on a total of 145 state referendum questions, with as many as 15 in Louisiana and 14 each in California and Colorado. The issues range from the protection of abortion rights to regulations concerning transgender children, from a tax on the super-rich to a ban on foie gras in Washington and Denver.
* THE POLLS. The latest polls point to a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives, whilst the race for the Senate is more closely fought; however, here too the Democrats – who need four seats to secure a majority – appear to be in the lead.

* VOTERS: There are around 250 million eligible voters, out of a population of around 350 million people.