Milk production peaks, so prices plummet: farmers on the alert
Farmers are concerned about the very low quotations for 'spot' milk, which have reached 20-22 cents per litre: a minority share in volume, but one that indicates trends in the sector. Most farmgate milk is sold at an agreed price of 52 cents per litre but only until the end of March
Milk production continues to increase and is putting Italian and European farmers in serious difficulty with a sharply declining price trend. Italian milk production in 2025 amounted to 13.3 million tonnes compared to 13.1 million in 2024. The average increase over the 12 months was therefore around +1.5% but with an acceleration between December and January. In December the increase was 5.95%. In January it rose again, exceeding +6%, especially in some areas with a strong zootechnical vocation in Northern Italia (Brescia, Cremona, Lodi, Mantova).
Picco expected in March
"We are in a phase of production growth," comments the head of the milk sector of FedagriPesca Confcooperative (the entire cooperation collects and manages 65% of national milk at the stable and processes 45% of national milk), Giovanni Guarneri - and the downward pressure on prices remains high. But we remain confident that the market will find its own balance. In all likelihood the peak in production is expected for the second half of March then the physiological drop in production expected in animal husbandry will begin with the arrival of the warmer seasons, and at that time we will be able to understand whether the pressure on prices will also come to a halt".
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Spot milk also at lows in Europe
In fact, this situation of overproduction is leading spot milk, i.e. the share of the product sold between processors, a part of the product that is not relevant in volume but is very indicative of trends in the sector, to be paid just 20-22 euro cents per litre. A very low value.
Different from spot milk, which is above all an indicator of the health of the market, is the farmgate milk price, which is how much the product is materially paid. In Italia the farmgate milk price is currently at 51 cents while in the EU28 it was at 47 cents last December and is projected towards 45 cents.
"But there are areas of Europe," Guarneri added, "that are already registering prices close to 35 cents. The farmers who are suffering the most are those in northern Germany, the Baltic States, Hungary and also producers in Poland and Ireland are slowly entering a crisis.
A situation that is spreading like wildfire. Today demonstrations by farmers protesting against the excessive drop in milk prices animated the streets of Belgrade, Serbia.
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