Ferretti hits its lowest level of the year, but then recovers. New guidance revision weighs on the share price

 (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A cold shower for Ferretti on the Milan Stock Exchange following the release of its first-nine-month results and a downward revision of profitability, for the second time in 2026. Shares in the luxury yacht company fell as low as €2.4020 – a new low for the year not far from the all-time low of €2.26 recorded in April 2025 – before recovering some ground. Since the start of 2026, the shares have fallen by 16.5 per cent. The group made its stock market debut on 27 June 2023 at €3 per share.

The first nine months of 2026 saw net revenue of €888.6 million (up 0.2 per cent year-on-year, driven by a 13.6 per cent increase in the third quarter), adjusted EBITDA of €130.6 million (-7.8 per cent) and net profit down 18.2 per cent to €49.9 million. Order intake for the nine-month period fell by 13.8 per cent to €664.9 million, but the third quarter recorded a 6.6 per cent increase. Supported by the gradual improvement in order intake, the net order book stood at 571.4 million (+1.2% compared with the first half of 2026). The Group confirms its guidance on net revenue (range: 1,200–1,24 billion) and capital expenditure (range: 60–65 million). Profitability forecasts, however, have been revised (new adjusted EBITDA range: 174–185 million from 186–197 million; adjusted EBITDA margin range: 14.5%–14.9%). This is the second downward revision in 2026, as highlighted by analysts at Equita.

“The third quarter shows revenue and order intake exceeding our expectations – say Equita analysts – but with the improvement concentrated exclusively in the Composite segment, which is benefiting from commercial initiatives (warranty extensions and, in our view, pricing/incentives) that have contributed to significant pressure on margins”. Equita maintains its ‘hold’ rating with a target price of €3.40 but emphasises that ‘one of the key issues to be explored during the conference call will be the extent and nature of the commercial policies used to support demand, particularly in the Composite segment’. In particular, it will be important to understand “whether they represent a change in strategic approach compared with the past and what their impact on margins might be”. According to Equita, “visibility for 2027/28 remains limited, with a significantly lower level of coverage compared with a year ago”. The net backlog stands at 571 million (-28 per cent year-on-year), of which approximately 397 million relates to 2027 and subsequent years, compared with a backlog of approximately 628 million for 2026 and subsequent years reported in September last year.

Banca Akros (neutral, target price of €3.30) anticipates a revision of estimates in the near term and points out that the new central figure in the guidance, amounting to €179.5 million, ‘is approximately 6 per cent lower than our estimates and approximately 5 per cent lower than the analyst consensus’. Banca Akros notes that on Monday 26 October, Ferretti announced that it had obtained, in the port of Ancona, the first single ZES authorisation, issued in just 54 days, paving the way for the expansion of its superyacht shipyard in Ancona. The project will enable the maximum length of yachts that can be built at the shipyard to be increased from 90 to 100 metres. The works are expected to take around six months. The initial economic impact on the local area is estimated at 30 million euros, with the possibility of further investment in the future. The expansion will enable Ferretti to undertake larger and more complex projects. According to the press release, the investment also confirms the group’s commitment to strengthening its industrial presence in Italia and supporting the local luxury yachting supply chain.