Moody's raises Italy's outlook from stable to positive. The rating remains at Baa3

Fears of tariffs once again moved the markets, hitting US government bonds while European government bonds saw yields fall across the board. Moody's decisionIncluding the BTp, which after closing yesterday at 3.6%, a good 40 basis points below the levels of 9 April, got a new promotion on the rating front in the evening. With the markets closed, in fact, Moody's raised from stable to positive the outlook that accompanies the Baa3 assigned to Italy for seven years now. Another improvement in the judgement that apparently goes against the rough waters of the international markets, but follows the line already treated on 11 April by S&P with the promotion, this time full, that took the judgement from BBB to BBB+ (with stable outlook). "This is the fruit of the serious and silent work we have been doing since the beginning of the government," Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti cashes in, commenting on a "result that benefits families, businesses and even Italian banks. In the face of widespread negative judgments,' he concludes, 'there is a country, Italy, which is being recognised for a significant upgrade'.New threats from TrumpAt yesterday's meeting, the US President Donald Trump once again rekindled market tensions. In a move that caught investors by surprise, the president threatened a 50% flat tax on all imports from the European Union as of 1 June. Added to this was a further lunge against Apple and Samsung: 25% duties on every device sold in the US but not produced on US soil. After weeks of gradual recovery in global indices, sustained in part by the idea that the acute phase of the trade war was now behind us, the new tariff threats show that the geopolitical risk remains structural.The message, entrusted as always to a direct and peremptory social post, was clear: "Discussions with the EU are leading nowhere". Words that had an immediate effect on global financial markets: sales on equities and purchases on safe haven assets. In Europe, the Stoxx-600 index lost 0.9%, recording its worst session since 9 April and breaking a positive streak of six consecutive weeks of rises. Even more pronounced was the reaction of continental listings with greater cyclical and commercial exposure. Lists and bondsThe German Dax closed down 1.5%, mainly penalised by the automotive and luxury sectors, while Paris, Madrid and Milan lost over 1%. Piazza Affari, in particular, was the worst with a drop of 1.94%, now orphaned by the dividend effect that had sustained the market in previous weeks.On Wall Street, the main indices lost almost 2% before halving their losses at the end. Apple, which came directly into the crosshairs of the presidential statements, lost 2%, leading the tech sector's decline and bringing the fragility of global supply chains back into focus. Indeed, the threat of 25% duties on devices sold but not produced in the United States calls into question the Cupertino giant's entire production model, which is heavily dependent on Asian manufacturing.On the bond front, US Treasuries, after initial purchases, were sold off again, bringing yields back to attention thresholds: the ten-year closed above 4.5%, while the thirty-year remained firmly above 5%. For Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer at Ubs global wealth management, 'although yields may rise again in response to deficit fears, it is likely that the Fed or the Trump administration itself will intervene to contain the surge'.In Europe, by contrast, yields fell across the board. The German ten-year rate fell to 2.57%. That of the Italian BTp at 3.6%, a good 40 basis points lower than the levels of 9 April. The spread against the German Bund closed the week just above 100 points, confirming a phase of relative stability for Italian debt, despite the generalised nervousness.The decision communicated last night by Moody's with the markets closed goes exactly in this direction. And it offers a new premium to that line of prudence on accounts that has allowed the government to plan a structural reduction of the deficit, and an early exit to 2026 from the EU procedure for excessive deficits, which at the moment is also resisting the urgency dictated by the increase in defence spending. In the rating agencies' analyses, fiscal solidity goes hand in hand with political solidity, and builds around the Italian maxidebito a sort of oasis from the unknowns that continue to dominate the international scenario with increasing intensity. In the meantime, traders increased their bets on new rate cuts by the Eurotower, with the market now pricing in a deposit rate of 1.60% by December, down from 1.72% at the start of the day. Expectations of monetary easing reflect fears that the new US protectionist offensive could hit the Old Continent, already struggling with a fragile recovery and still weak domestic demand, particularly hard. The political message has got through: the United States is ready to force its hand on all fronts, and Europe will have to decide whether to accept new concessions or in turn raise the tone of the confrontation.