Morocco, Israel and the new geography of agricultural power

In 2025, the Moroccan agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector lost 41,000 jobs, whilst the national underemployment rate reached 10.9 per cent. The World Bank regards water scarcity as a structural threat to growth and the resilience of rural communities. The expansion of commercially more profitable production can therefore go hand in hand with an increasingly unequal distribution of economic opportunities.

France represents the most complex case in Europe. In 2025, bilateral trade with Morocco reached 15.1 billion euros, comprising 7.7 billion in French exports and 7.4 billion in imports. Paris also plays a central role in investment: according to the Directorate-General of the Treasury, France accounts for around 27 per cent of the stock of foreign direct investment in Morocco. The approximately 1,159 French subsidiaries employ a total of 152,000 people. France is keen to ensure the competitiveness of its own farmers, but is at the same time one of the main financial and industrial beneficiaries of Morocco’s development. Protecting domestic production and supporting the modernisation of the Moroccan economy are not compatible objectives.

In 2024, France recorded imports from Morocco of approximately 471,829 tonnes of fresh tomatoes, worth 919 million dollars. Some of these goods may subsequently be distributed to other European markets; the customs figures do not necessarily correspond to final consumption in France. Nevertheless, this represents a considerable commercial exposure, particularly for producers competing in the same seasonal segments.

France was also the place where a dispute began that went on to reshape European commercial law. On 4 October 2024, in the case Confédération paysanne, the Court of Justice of the European Union addressed the labelling of tomatoes and melons harvested in Western Sahara, distinguishing their territorial origin from that of Morocco. France needs continuity of investment, the protection of its supply chains and the correct application of European rules. Any solution that prioritises just one of these objectives inevitably shifts the costs onto the others.

For Italia, the picture is somewhat different, with agricultural competition coexisting with a significant industrial advantage. Up to November 2025, Italian exports to Morocco totalled approximately 2.707 billion euros, compared with imports of 1.617 billion, generating a trade surplus of around 1.09 billion. The composition of trade is even more significant. Italia exported machinery and equipment worth 452.2 million euros, compared with imports in the same category of around 6.6 million. During the same period, it imported processed food products worth 375.2 million euros, whilst exporting 155.5 million worth. In the food sector under consideration, the balance is therefore negative by approximately 219.7 million, whilst that for machinery remains strongly positive.

More efficient Moroccan production may also increase competitive pressure on certain sectors of Italian Mediterranean agriculture.

It would be incorrect to equate the entire 452.2 million in machinery exports with agricultural technology: this category encompasses a wide range of industrial activities. The figure nevertheless demonstrates the strength of Italy’s manufacturing sector, upon which to build a less defensive and more selective economic policy.

In Brussels, the issue is also a legal one. The judgements of the Court of Justice of 4 October 2024 have necessitated a reassessment of the agreements concerning Western Sahara. In October 2025, the European Union and Morocco introduced a new trade framework applied on a provisional basis, followed by EU Delegated Regulation 2025/2652 on the indication of the region of harvest for the products concerned.

On 31 October 2025, the Security Council of the United Nations adopted Resolution 2797, identifying the Moroccan proposal for autonomy as the basis for negotiations and retaining the reference to a solution that guarantees the self-determination of the people of Western Sahara. The territorial issue has not been definitively resolved, whilst traders continue to require applicable rules and reliable documentation.

One question remains unanswered: the Israeli influence on Moroccan agriculture. What will be the implications and the economic links between natural resources, businesses and European markets? A proportion of Moroccan production could be controlled by Israeli companies. And how might relations between the EU and Israel develop?