Morocco: the counter-terrorism wall caught between Atlantic ambitions and latent crises

Beyond the announcements from Rabat, it is unclear to what extent jihadist-affiliated militias are actually expanding in Morocco. Analysts interviewed by Il Sole 24 Ore Next Med are adopting a cautious stance. Morocco may be of “strategic interest to grassroots militants in the Sahel”, explains Beverly Ochieng of Control Risks, but “this will remain confined to isolated individuals influenced by online propaganda or symbolism, rather than direct links with IS (Islamic State)’’.

Self-radicalisation and exposure to extremist ideology online may fuel the phenomenon, says Ochieng, but “the proactive stance of the Moroccan security apparatus will minimise the broader threats”.

Even the spillover to the north of the jihadist insurgency appears to be limited, particularly when compared with the offshoots observed along the West African coast. Morocco, as Luca Raineri of the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies in Pisa points out, has a ‘long history’ of Moroccans enlisting as foreign fighters with ISIS and subsequently entering a government ‘deradicalisation’ programme with uncertain outcomes: even in the absence of a return to violence, the social marginalisation surrounding them represents the most fertile ground for new extremist tendencies. ‘Amongst these individuals, it is conceivable that a certain sympathy for jihadist subversion continues to exist,’ says Raineri, but ‘it remains to be seen how genuine and effective these connections are: I doubt they are able to send money, men or orders to one another, apart from a general strategic direction’.

Rabat’s anti-terrorism activism ties in with the country’s strategic vision, as it continues to grow in stature as a diplomatic partner and pro-Western actor with ties to the EU, Israel and the United States. On the military and security front, “Morocco wants to present itself to Europe and the United States as a bulwark against the spread of jihadist terrorism originating in the Sahel,” says Ignacio Cembrero, a Spanish journalist and analyst specialising in the Maghreb. Timing and relationships are working in its favour: Rabat, says Cembrero, is “convinced that France’s expulsion from the Sahel and the strained relations between Algeria and Mali present an opportunity” and maintains “excellent relations with the military juntas governing the Sahelian countries”.

On the diplomatic and economic front, Rabat has recently seen its influence grow on the North African and international stage.

“His most notable achievement is ‘the diplomatic paradigm shift on the Western Sahara issue, enshrined in the UN Security Council resolution of October 2025’,” explains Dario Cristiani of the Institute of International Affairs, referring to the shift in approach in favour of Morocco’s position on the Western Sahara issue: the position of autonomy under Rabat’s administration, now also endorsed by France and the United States. On other fronts, Cristiani notes, Morocco has managed to avoid a setback in its relations with Israel following the Iran-Iraq War and is strengthening ties with the Sahelian countries themselves ahead of the Atlantic Initiative: the initiative launched in 2023 by King Mohamed VI to open an ocean route to Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad, positioning the country as a commercial bridge between the Gulf, Europe and the US.

Rabat’s vibrancy clashes with the country’s internal tensions, caught between aspirations for record growth, a web of alliances and domestic hardships, channelled by a movement with both African and global resonance: GenZ212, the wave of protests by very young members of Generation Z against political repression, unemployment, a lack of services and the ‘scandal’ surrounding investment in the 2030 World Cup. Even claims regarding the successes of counter-terrorism must be ‘viewed with caution’, explains Karim Mezran of the Atlantic Council think tank, as they may serve as a ‘justification for the repression and intimidation’ taking place in the country.

Today, says Mezran, Morocco ‘finds itself in a “mixed” situation, caught between modern, reformist forces and an authoritarian, repressive tendency that cannot be ignored. Let us consider the issue of the Abraham Accords: the elite are in favour, but the majority of the country is not. What might happen when a breaking point is reached?’