MPS: shareholder Tortora open to Intesa Sanpaolo’s OPAS

In the segment of the most problematic loans, it is no longer just the banks that are active. Private capital is playing an increasingly significant role, complementing the traditional banking system. “The distressed sector in Europe,” emphasised Carlo Viola, CEO of Fincavio Capital and vice-chairman of Connexum’s scientific committee, “can count on several hundred funds that include investment strategies in distressed debt, special situations, opportunistic credit, turnaround equity and emergency finance. In Italia,” added the CEO, “of the approximately 150 private capital managers surveyed by AIFI, it is estimated that only 20–40 (including foreign operators with a presence in Italy) are active in this sector. Securitisations of NPLs and UTPs have also contributed in recent years to transferring a significant portion of distressed exposures from the banking system to the capital markets. ‘In short,’ emphasised Viola, ‘a new risk infrastructure is taking shape, in which private capital is increasingly absorbing, on a structural basis, shares of risk ceded by banks, which then begin to circulate in the secondary market, thereby increasing market transparency and liquidity. The issue is not whether restructuring will be led and financed by banks or funds, but whether we will succeed in establishing a risk infrastructure that is sufficiently deep, liquid and agile to support businesses during periods of disruption.”

In the wake of the US mid-term elections, which have just concluded with a clear victory for the Democratic Party, the new US Congress will now have to grapple with an international economic outlook for the two-year period 2026–2027 characterised by moderate growth and a climate of high uncertainty. “The global economy continues to expand,” noted Gregorio De Felice, chief economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, “but it faces a number of risk factors that could undermine its stability.”

Among the sources of uncertainty, the trend in energy prices and tensions in the commodities markets play a central role. The persistence of high oil and gas prices is, in fact, putting pressure on production costs and household budgets. In particular, Europe is more exposed to the effects of the energy shock, partly due to supply difficulties and low levels of gas stocks. This situation risks fuelling fresh inflationary pressures and slowing down the process of bringing inflation back under control.

Any analysis of future macroeconomic prospects must necessarily begin with the United States, where economic growth continues to be underpinned by investment in artificial intelligence and resilient consumer spending. “However, outside the sectors most closely linked to AI,” warned Intesa Sanpaolo’s chief economist, “economic activity appears less dynamic. The labour market is also showing signs of gradual weakening, whilst inflation remains relatively persistent. In this context, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with possible tightening measures on interest rates. In the euro area, too, the growth outlook remains fragile and dependent on the trend in energy costs. “The European Central Bank could adopt a more restrictive stance,” continued De Felice, “with a possible rate rise in December. The monetary policies of the major central banks will therefore continue to be a key factor in the performance of the financial markets.”

As far as Italia is concerned, the outlook points to modest GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in 2026 and 0.8 per cent in 2027. “Household consumption,” noted Intesa Sanpaolo’s chief economist, “will continue to make a positive contribution to economic activity, but its growth will be affected by the rising cost of living. Rising prices, in fact, erode purchasing power and limit households’ spending capacity. Gross fixed capital formation, on the other hand, provides a supportive factor, with an expected increase of 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.9 per cent in 2027. Italian inflation is forecast at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, but with a possible peak of around 5% between late 2026 and early 2027. Households’ real disposable income is expected to grow, albeit at a modest pace, confirming that their spending power remains limited.”

On the public finance front, Italia’s deficit is expected to stabilise at just under 3 per cent of GDP. This outcome also benefits from the flexibility granted at European level for certain energy- and defence-related expenditure. The sustainability of public finances remains, however, a key issue, particularly in view of the high level of debt and the cost of financing it. “Overall,” concluded De Felice, “the projections point to a scenario without recession, but one characterised by weak and vulnerable economic growth. The main risk factor is the possible combination of persistently high energy prices, stubborn inflation and interest rates that remain restrictive. The evolution of these factors will be decisive for the economies’ ability to maintain a growth trajectory and for the stability of financial markets in the two-year period 2026–2027.”

Aptus.AI, Legora, Lexroom and Libra by Wolters Kluwer are the new AI players that are transforming the world of law firms. This select group of companies is turning the vast amount of structured legal information available today into operational services. “These are platforms,” explained Marco Rossi, “that have attracted substantial investment: in recent weeks, the two international leaders in the sector, the US-based Harvey and the Swedish Legora, have closed two funding rounds of $550 million each, reaching valuations of 15.5 and 8.8 billion respectively – figures that are worth tens of times their recurring revenue and which price in expected growth more than current turnover.”

The new systems are already replacing traditional ways of working. In the area of non-performing loans, they are having an impact on the most document-intensive tasks: the large-scale analysis of the files that make up an NPL portfolio, position-by-position due diligence, case law research, and the bulk drafting of formal notices and appeals. These are tasks that used to take days to complete but can now be carried out in a matter of hours.

Not all start-ups have the same business model. “Legora,” pointed out the lawyer, co-managing partner at RR&P and chair of the scientific committee at Alma Iura, “represents the international approach, which starts with technology and acquires content, in Italia through a partnership with Lextel AI. Libra is an example of artificial intelligence developed within the archive of a major legal publisher, Wolters Kluwer. Aptus.AI and Lexroom, on the other hand, are the Italian verticals, built on proprietary databases designed for civil law, where fidelity to the legal text matters more than the fluidity of the response.”

In Italia, according to the Censis-Cassa Forense 2026 Report, 55.3 per cent of professionals say they already use artificial intelligence tools, in a market that nevertheless remains immature. ‘Generative systems,’ warned Rossi, ‘can produce non-existent legal citations or references that do not correspond to the original documents – the phenomenon of so-called “hallucinations”, which several Italian judges have already penalised. This is why the four platforms link every response to its source, so that professionals can verify it with a single click. Investors are not betting on what these operators are doing today, but on what they are expected to do tomorrow. For the lawyer,” Rossi remarked, “the difference no longer lies in the language model – which is often the same for everyone – but in the architecture surrounding it: the sources, the verification systems, and the integration into the firm’s workflow. And the scope remains that set by law: the machine assists, but it is the professional who provides the answer.’

Finally, Lucio Izzi, Chief Executive of the Banca Finint Group, said that ‘innovation means anticipating market changes and understanding their implications, even when this requires moving beyond established models. It is within this pioneering vision that our strategy on NPEs is framed. In recent years, we have evolved our positioning: from supporting servicing operations to the direct purchase of non-performing loans, and on to offering highly specialised consultancy services to businesses facing complex challenges. This decision led to the creation of the Specialty Finance Division, to manage special situations. “We put our expertise at the service of businesses,” concluded the CEO of Banca Finint, “that are seeking alternatives to traditional credit, whilst fostering dialogue with banks and investors. “Our aim goes beyond debt recovery: to contribute to the prosperity of the regions in which we operate and to safeguard the pool of talent and expertise that makes Italian businesses unique.”