Mps slips on plan, analysts see ambitious targets but few details

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Banca Mps "slides" along with Mediobanca on the new business plan, which arrived just before the opening of the Italian Stock Exchange. At the gong at the start of the session, in fact, the Sienese bank started out on the rise, only to brake immediately afterwards and lose over 3%. Analysts at Intermonte hot on their heels called the 2030 targets "ambitious" in terms of "profitability and solidity" but, according to them, at least at the moment, the Mps statement "does not provide much colour on the intermediate plan targets to 2028, where the only indication is on an 'adjusted' net profit".

The business plan, they add from Equita, includes a 2028-2030 profit target of about '10% higher than expected mainly due to greater synergies on the operating costs side'. Rocca Salimbeni with the integration of Piazzetta Cuccia estimates an 'adjusted' net profit of 3.7 billion at the end of the plan and the cumulative dividend distribution of 16 billion. Net interest and other banking income will grow from EUR 7.6 billion to EUR 9.5 billion, and the group's reorganisation under five divisions will also include the development of business abroad.

For the merger with Mediobanca - also penalised by the sales with a 'red' of 2.8% - the indication is that it will be realised by the end of this year. But the issue of the exchange rate for the integration has not been resolved. 'No indication has been given,' they also comment from Equita. Monte dei Paschi merely explains that the process for finalising the exchange ratio will close by 10 March. It should be noted that this deadline is later than the board's list, given that the 'short' list of Siena's board of directors to be proposed at the mid-April shareholders' meeting must be deposited by 6 March (and must contain the 20 names to be submitted to the shareholders' scrutiny).

The group will have excess capital of EUR 3 billion in 2030 (based on a Cet1 of 13%), which represents 'firepower for our shareholders,' CEO Luigi Lovaglio added during the subsequent conference call with analysts. But the market's reception, at least for now, remains cold.