Mps on the upswing after 15% placement and formation of a hard core of shareholders

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Banca Mps sprinted to the top of Piazza Affari in the aftermath of the placement of 15% of the capital by the Mef at 5.792 euro per share. The bank's shares put up for sale by the Treasury were immediately bought by Banco Bpm , for 5%, Anima Holding , for 3%, Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and Del Vecchio's Delfin for 3.5%, respectively. Institutional investors were practically left high and dry, and speculators who had bet on a possible fall in the shares, provoked by the Treasury's placement, rushed to cover themselves during the day, causing the prices to rise.

In addition, Banca Mps prices are also running because they are supported by speculation that there is a move towards the formation of athird banking pole, formed by Banco Bpm (+5% the Lombard bank's shares) and Banca Mps. And who knows - it is hypothesised in the operating rooms - that also Unipol -Banca Pop Er, should the Treasury decide to sell the 11.7% it still holds. Moreover, the number one of Unipol, Carlo Cimbri, in recent weeks, while putting forward that he was not interested, has not hidden the possibility of joining the game, which would make industrial sense since Unipol's insurance products would also find an outlet at all Mps branches. As for Banco Bpm, the institute's move gives pause for thought: although Giuseppe Castagna has also recently illustrated the bank's stand-alone strategy, with the purchase of 5% of Mps' capital, the Lombardy institution - according to traders - could be moving towards the idea of forming a pole with Rocca Salimbeni. Moreover, in all likelihood, it will also dispose of the Mps shares held by Anima, which are equal to 4% (the 3% acquired yesterday during the placement, the 1% already held by the company). Banco Bpm in fact launched just last week a full takeover bid on the sgr and in financial circles the move was immediately interpreted as the first step towards the formation of a Bami-BMps axis.

Summarising yesterday, the Treasury, with the markets closed, sold 15% of Rocca Salimbeni's capital at EUR 5.792 per share, a 5% premium over the closing price of the stock. Following the transaction, the Mef continues to hold 11.7% of Mps, on which it has a lock-up period of 90 days. After the private placement, a hard core of Banca Mps shareholders was formed, with Banco Bpm (also considering Anima's stake) being by far the largest shareholder, with the exception of the Treasury's position, which is likely to be further reduced in the future. Equita analysts also commented that at this point there are 'prospects for further consolidation in the banking sector, which, although not necessarily short-term, increase speculative appeal'. In any case, from Banco Bpm's point of view, the experts noted, entry into the capital allows it to defend Anima's second main distribution channel, significantly limiting one of the risks linked to the takeover bid launched in recent days. In fact, Anima has a commercial contract with Banca Mps that will expire in 2030 and that currently accounts for 16% of the sgr's retail inflows. Banco Bpm will also benefit from the Sienese institution's dividend in prospect, against a limited consumption of capital. Equita, for example, estimates that Mps' coupons "will contribute between 2.5% and 3% of Banco Bpm's profit, while, assuming full success of the Anima takeover bid, it will contribute 5% of the combined entity's profit".

For now, however, Banco Bpm has indicated that it has no plans to apply for more than 10% of Rocca Salimbeni's capital, reiterating its stand-alone strategy. Equita recommends a 'Hold' on both the shares of Banca Mps, for which it estimates a price target of €6.2, and those of Banco Bpm, with a target of €7.6. Intermonte, on the other hand, recommends buying Banco Bpm ('Outperform' with a price target of 7.9 euro), considering that yesterday's move reinforces the relationship between Anima and Mps. In addition, 'in the future, we cannot exclude that the two banks may converge towards a consolidation,' the experts concluded.