The choices of the new generations follow wealth (and make it grow)

If we have one certainty as to what is increasing and will continue to increase over the coming decades throughout our country, it is the elderly population. The fourth edition of the Sole 24 Ore provincial indicators on the Quality of Life of Children, Young People and the Elderly shows a sustained and homogeneous growth of the over-65s in all the geographical divisions. The increase expected over the next ten years is around 16% on a national scale with little variation between North, Centre and South.

If we have, moreover, one certainty as to where we observe and will observe even more in the future a difficulty in maintaining adequate levels of well-being, it is in areas where the population is ageing without the presence of new generations. Where new couples cannot count on efficient services, job opportunities, adequate growth prospects for their children, births will decrease and the outflow of young people will increase. This will make the territory even less vital and public services less sustainable, fuelling a downward spiral of demographic decline, fragility and social malaise.

If, as we have said, ageing is proceeding fairly homogeneously, degrowth presents very differentiated dynamics. Twenty and thirty year olds will tend to remain substantially stable over the next ten years in central-northern Italy (but their relative incidence will fall as the number of elderly people increases), while they will decline by 13% in southern Italy. This is due to the greater fall in the birth rate in the southern regions between the end of the last century and the first decades of this century, but above all to the lower contribution of immigration from abroad and the negative balance of internal mobility.

In short, what matters and will matter most in demographic dynamics - closely interdependent with indicators of quality of life and job opportunities - is where young people go. And young people go where there are young people. Because if there are young people it means that the context is attractive, both because of the objective factors that make it so, and because of the social and cultural dynamism fuelled by their presence. But also because, in an ageing society, where there are young people there is a more sustainable context, also with respect to the services available and the possibility of their continuous reinforcement. And finally because where there are young people, births can also increase, contributing to a virtuous relationship between demographic vitality, economic vitality and social liveability.

It is therefore crucial to pay attention to the degeneration process, which tends to lead to a vicious circle of impoverishment of both the quantitative presence of young people and the quality of life in general. The contexts most at risk are those in which the educational and professional paths of the new generations are weakest. The combination of a low percentage of university graduates and high youth unemployment sees the southern provinces most disadvantaged. But on other indicators critical aspects are also evident in the rest of the country. In addition to the difficulties encountered in the school-to-work transition, an important brake on young people's life plans is the difficulty in accessing housing. The rent indicator sees the central and northern provinces in the least favourable positions, especially those containing large cities or tourist capitals. The real estate market is in danger of becoming increasingly polarised between high costs in these economically dynamic areas, and depreciation in the rest of the country, particularly where the population tends to decline the most. This, however, risks being a trap for young people, especially those who want to invest in their social mobility with low starting resources. The areas that will be able to attract them and integrate them not only for study and work, but also to realise their own life projects, will be those with greater prospects for development in the coming decades. In this respect, Europe's major urban realities are currently more attractive than those in central and northern Italy. Moreover, even in this geographical breakdown there is a growing number of inland areas with a high risk of depopulation and ageing, which makes it very difficult to maintain an adequate investment in services for young people and families.