New Inwit thud as 2026 guidance and medium-term outlook cut

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A new session to forget for Inwit after the downward revision of the 2026 guidance and medium-term outlook, decided by the Board of Directors that met to analyse the state of relations with Telecom Italia and Fastweb+Vodafone and the JV they announced to build up to 6,000 towers, deemed "in contrast with the MSAs", master service agreements, that exist with Inwit. The share price returned to a level not seen since the end of 2018. The shares had already ceded 15.6% on the eve of the day precisely because of the agreement between Tim and Fastweb+Vodafone for the construction and management of new mobile phone towers in Italia, an announcement that analysts see as a 'threat' to the wireless telecommunications infrastructure operator.

"The negotiating space between the parties is not yet completely closed, although clearly the confrontation has become very bitter," Equita points out. That said, Inwit's CEO Diego Galli clarified that "there was no conversation yesterday with Tim and Fastweb+Vodafone" and that "the Msa with Fastweb+Vodafone ends in March 2038, we will put in place any action necessary to clarify this". Inwit also noted 'the increasing conflict expressed by the anchor tenants and their strategy of negotiating pressure', which is why it has revised its guidance and for 2026 now expects revenue in the range of EUR 1,050-1,090 million; ebitda margin of around 90%; ebitdaal margin of around 72%; recurring free cash flow in the range of EUR 550-590 million; dividend per share at least equal to the value of the 2025 financial year (confirmed at 0.55 per share).

"Surprising the margin revision to 2026, which is hardly attributable to the current situation (the two anchor tenants had already stopped on the discretionary business for some time), while the other indications are consistent with an ex-growth scenario reflecting low visibility on development initiatives and deteriorated relationships with the two anchor tenants," Equita's experts point out. Among other things, taking the midpoint of the new ranges as a reference, "the new outlook translates into a 13% cut in the expected Rlfcf on 2026, which also reverberates on the following years, despite the lower revenue growth (from 4% now to low single-digit levels, 1-2%, i.e. about 20-30 million less than our estimates) being largely offset by the expected reduction in Capex (about 40 million/year less than our estimates)," Intermonte's analysts explain.