Tim/Fastweb+Vodafone agreement on towers sends Inwit plummeting

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The non-binding agreement signed between Fastweb+Vodafone and Telecom Italia to build up to 6,000 new mobile phone towers in Italia ballasts the stock of Inwit at Piazza Affari, which, after failing to make a price at the start and several subsequent stop&go, is now trailing the Milanese list (FTSE MIB ). In a basket coloured entirely in red, sales also hit the shares of Tim, that of Vodafone in London and of Swisscom Ag in Zurich.

In detail, Tim and Swisscom announced this morning a non-binding agreement for the development and operation of new mobile telephony towers (passive infrastructure) in Italia, with the aim of building up to 6,000 new sites. The joint initiative also aims to accelerate the nationwide implementation of 5G. The new tower operator will initially be 50/50% owned and may later see the entry of other partners and will have a debt component to optimise its capital structure. Construction activities will be carried out according to a multi-year development plan. With this transaction, Equita analysts point out, Tim "continues in the execution of the efficiency plan and value extraction that had been outlined by the management", also because in the recent communication of the results, the group led by Pietro Labriola had indicated that the initiative would have the first impacts in 2027, with more material contribution in 2028 and especially 2029, with setup costs included in the guidance 2026.

The alternative for Tim/Fastweb+Vodafone, the experts note, was to develop coverage through Inwit, while the agreement "increases the strategic flexibility of Tim and Fastweb with respect to Inwit", and optimises the cost of developing the 5G network (with savings in the order of a few tens of millions of ebitda for Tim), while also opening up the possibility of a partial monetisation of the asset thanks to the entry of third-party investors. According to Banca Akros, the project "should allow Tim and Fastweb + Vodafone to improve operating efficiency and align costs with the European average, while maintaining high quality infrastructure standards and the technological flexibility necessary for the development of new-generation networks". As far as Inwit is concerned, the agreement removes the need for Tim and Vodafone to make discretionary investments with Inwit, which observers estimate could account for around 4-5% of revenues and free cash flow by 2030. According to Intermonte, the agreement between the two anchor tenants to internalise investments on new sites represents a "clear threat" for Inwit and, among other things, comes at a time of talks with Inwit to renegotiate their respective MSAs (Master Service Agreements governing Inwit's activities with Telecom for the management, maintenance and access to networks or tlc towers ed. According to Equita, some 'all or nothing' clauses make it 'unrealistic' for Inwit to be able to exit the agreement.

In particular, Intermonte notes, this initiative could result in a reduction in future commitments to Inwit for the construction of new sites, strengthening the negotiating power of the two operators. The SIM recalls that Inwit's plan envisages the construction of around 3.5 thousand new towers between 2024 (around 25 thousand sites) and 2030 (around 28.5 thousand), more than half of which with anchor tenants, with an average financial commitment of around EUR 100 thousand per site (around EUR 350 million cumulative over six years). "In a purely hypothetical scenario of complete cancellation of the future contribution of the two anchor tenants to the development of new sites and maintenance of the current Msa under the same terms and conditions," writes the sim, "we estimate a negative impact on Inwit's valuation of around €1.7bn, equivalent to almost €2 per share). Tim currently relies mainly on Inwit as a tower provider, Banca Akros recalls. According to the latest available information (relating to Q3 2025), Inwit has around 25,500 towers with a lease ratio of 2.37 times and around 60,000 total POPs (Points of Presence - physical access points to the network ed.), of which the share of the main tenants (Tim and Fastweb Vodafone) is around 43,700. Tim and Vodafone account for about 80% of Inwit's revenues in the first nine months of 2025 (Tim about 39%, Fastweb Vodafone about 41%).