The EU Commission's calculations

Gentiloni: 'NextGenerationEU will boost European GDP by 1.4 per cent in 2026'. And he opens up to Eurobonds for defence

In an eagerly awaited report taking stock of the NextGenerationEU programme born in the wake of the 2020 pandemic, the European Commission was optimistic about the future of growth in the European Union

Il commissario Ue agli affari economiciPaolo Gentiloni

3' min read

3' min read

FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT

BRUSSELS - In an eagerly awaited report taking stock of the NextGenerationEU programme created in the wake of the 2020 pandemic, the European Commission expressed optimism on Wednesday 21 February about the future of growth in the European Union, thanks precisely to the innovative joint financing plan. Both Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis and Economic Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni opened the door to new joint instruments in the field of defence.

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"Models from the UK-based National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) show that in 2022 the EU's gross domestic product was 0.4% higher than it would have been without the spending programme," explained Commissioner Gentiloni. "Looking forward, the European Commission's simulations estimate that the NextGenerationEU could increase real GDP by 1.4% in 2026, compared to a scenario without NGEU."

The stance comes at a time when doubts and scepticism about the real impact of a EUR 750 billion economic programme are emerging from many quarters. In his speech, the former prime minister made it clear that the Commission's estimate is net of the positive impact of the reforms envisaged by NextGenerationEU itself. Beyond the economic aspects, the programme was particularly innovative because it is based on funds borrowed by the EU executive from the markets.

Asked at a press conference about the possibility of repeating the initiative to meet Europe's defence and security needs in the wake of the Russian war in Ukraine, European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis was possibilistic: 'The defence issue is at the top of the agenda. We will have to work on this front in the future, also at European level'. Commissioner Gentiloni urged the political class to think about 'possible new joint financial instruments'.

The NextGenerationEU provides loans and grants, distributed to the Twenty-Seven according to their economic weight and the impact the pandemic has had on the economic fabric. Italy is the country that has benefited most from the programme. In its report, the European Commission points out, among other things, that so far the country has used the money to modernise civil justice, adopt modern rail traffic management facilities, and strengthen green industry.

Precisely Italy, together with Spain and Croatia, achieved the most targets: 178 (out of a total of 527), 121 (out of 416) and 104 (out of 372), respectively. That being said, the question arises from many quarters as to whether the Twenty-Seven will be able to adopt the planned measures by 2026, as required by the legislation. Vice-President Dombrovskis explained that changing the date would be 'complex', 'with parliamentary ratification procedures in many countries'. He added: "This is not a likely scenario".

As the Vice-President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis reminded us, the NextGenerationEU focuses on the double transition and digital. Above all, the distribution of the money 'is based on the performance of the individual countries, and not on costs'. The former Latvian prime minister admitted that administrative capacity is a crucial factor in making the best use of the programme. Italy, with other countries, negotiated changes to its national recovery and resilience plan.

So far, Brussels has disbursed EUR 225 billion. "The European Commission estimates that 1,153 targets (out of a total of 6,266) have been satisfactorily met so far. A further 1,238 targets have been completed by the member states (and have yet to be assessed by the EU executive, ed.). We expect that more than half (54%) of all targets will be completed by the end of 2024,' Commissioner Gentiloni added.

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