Is northern Italy depopulating? '2.3 million residents will be gone by 2040'

Italy, and the northern regions in particular, see the risk of a 'demographic glaciation' looming, which, without new migration or a decisive reversal in births, will lead to a decline in the labour force, a smaller domestic market, and thus lower consumption and lower investment between now and 2040.

A dystopian future is the one photographed by the North-Eastern Foundation, with a study that has reworked the Istat 2023 demographic data, which had sounded the alarm on the negative birth rate record. It will be mainly Northern Italy, it is predicted, that will pay the price: by 2040, in just 17 years, the North will record a negative balance of 2.3 million residents compared to the current one: it will go from 27.4 million inhabitants in 2023 to 25.1 million.

The effects will be seen especially in Lombardy (-673 thousand), Piedmont (-493 thousand) and Veneto (-387 thousand). In the North-East the reduction will be 939 thousand, in the North-West 1.4 million. The absolute descent will be rapid from the outset: -143 thousand per year over the next seven years in Northern Italy; then it eases to -133 thousand over the next ten. The smaller gap in the second part of the period is explained by the 'heroic' hypothesis - the scholars define it - of an increase in annual births; a jump of 11 thousand units between 2023 and 2030, and 23 thousand between 2023 and 2040. Without such an increase, with the birth rate nailed to 2023 values, the descent would accelerate further, and another 385 thousand people would be added to the decline.

The territorial and economic effects of this 'glaciation' will be important: the decrease in population will not be uniform; it will be the most remote and isolated centres, with fewer services (health, schools) and lower prospects for work and social life that will pay the heaviest bill. The abandonment of these places will lead, for instance, to less forest and land maintenance, which will increase the hydrogeological risk. Fewer inhabitants will mean less domestic market, hence lower consumption, but also lower investments. There will be a recomposition of the age pyramid of the population, with an increase in the elderly and a decrease in the young; the real estate market will suffer a strong backlash, as will the accumulation of private savings. The 'glaciation' will naturally affect consumption: fewer nappies for babies, more health aids for the old.

In the Fondazione Nord Est's study, the 'delete the city' game is also proposed, i.e. a completely subjective list of cities and centres that could 'disappear' if the loss of inhabitants were concentrated in them: in Lombardy, the equivalent of cities such as Brescia, Monza, Bergamo, Como, Varese and Pavia would be emptied. in Veneto, Padua, Vicenza and Treviso would 'disappear', becoming semi-deserted.