Pinwheel of polls

Dem governors support Biden but Trump's lead grows

After the disastrous televised confrontation with former President Trump, Joe Biden's re-election bid is becoming increasingly complicated, while random voter surveys investigate the potential for last-minute replacements. Michelle Obama among the most quoted

Biden si distrae dopo il lancio dei paracadutisti al G7, Meloni lo riporta nel gruppo dei leader

3' min read

3' min read

"All Democratic governors are on Joe Biden's side and we all want to win in November," Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz said after a meeting with the president and his 30 or so colleagues at the White House. 'The president has assured us that he is in the race to win,' added New York State Governor Kathy Hochul. Biden, however, admitted in a radio interview that he "screwed up", that he "made a mistake" at the TV duel with Donald Trump. The memory of his bewildered face and blank stare, not to mention his resigned tone and feeble, unintelligible voice is etched in the memory of millions of American voters. So much so that by the hour the pressure is growing from those who would like a change of horses before it is too late.

First cracks in the presidential staff

Against this backdrop, it is the emblazoned New York Times that records the first signs of a possible step backwards. Biden, the newspaper explains, had admitted to one of his allies that he would be considering whether or not to continue in the race for the White House. Biden reportedly said he is aware that he may not be able to save his candidacy if he does not convince the public in the coming days that he can continue the job. The reaction of the presidential staff was immediate: the New York Times article is 'absolutely false', spokesman Andrew Bates announced, effectively denying that Joe Biden is considering dropping out of the presidential race. 'It is absolutely false. If the New York Times had given us more than seven minutes to comment we would have said so,' Bates wrote on X.

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While Biden holds out, the spotlight is shining on the vice-president who has never been able to win the favour of the establishment and voters. In the enormously difficult situation holding Biden back Kamala Harris might she have a better chance of beating Trump next November? According to a poll conducted for Cnn among registered voters in the days after the debate, Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden would rise to 6 points, 49% versus 43%. But that would be reduced to two points, 47% to 45%, if it was Harris challenging the former president in November. The same poll indicates 56% of Democratic voters believe the party would have a better chance of winning with a candidate other than the 81-year-old president. 'We want to win, and it would probably be easier with someone other than Biden,' a Dem senator's aide tells The Hill. And as for Harris's chances, it should be noted that James Clyburn, one of the leading members of the African-American caucus, and a major ally of Biden, has already said that if the president retires, he will support Harris, the first African-American vice president.

Michelle Obama the only candidate capable of beating Trump

Among the possible alternative candidacies, the 'end of the world' hypothesis stands out in the background: the race of the former first lady Michelle Obama, who has been repeating for years that a return to the White House - this time as president and not as the wife of - has never been in her plans or desires. Fuelling the rumours about her name are the polls: Michelle Obama is in fact the only one among the Dems considered a possible replacement for Joe Biden in the race for the White House who could beat Donald Trump.

This is according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, which records how the former first lady would have a wide lead over the former president, 50% against 39%. Other Democrats taken into account in the survey include Vice President Kamala Harris, who would be defeated by one point by Trump, 42% versus 43%. While the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, is given behind by 3 points, and the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer by 5. Unlike other polls, this poll does not record a retreat of Biden after the debate and depicts the duel between Biden and Trump as a neck-and-neck, with both candidates at 40%.

While the Dems are divided between those in favour (few) and (many) against Biden's re-election bid, Trump's lead is growing. According to a Cbs News poll, the former president now has a three-point lead in key states and a two-point lead nationally. Trump is polled at 50 per cent nationally, with Biden at 48 per cent, and at 51 per cent against 48 per cent in key states taken together. A month ago Trump had in the same poll just a one point lead in key states. The former president's strengthened position is mainly due to the increased determination of Republican voters to 'definitely' go out and vote.

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