Buying in the oil sector following US attacks on Iran. Eni leads the gains

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- New tensions in the Middle East are pushing up the price of crude oil and fuelling buying in oil stocks. On the Milan Stock Exchange Eni is rising at a steady pace; Saipem and Tenaris are also up. Other European groups in the sector are also performing well: in Paris, TotalEnergies is up, in Madrid Repsol is up, and in London BP is up.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, speaking from Ankara, where the NATO summit is still underway, has authorised US strikes against Iran in response to actions attributed to Tehran against three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has also reinstated economic sanctions on Iranian oil. “US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial ship crews comprising innocent civilians in international waters,” the US Central Command announced overnight. However, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister, the US action constitutes a ‘violation’ of the memorandum signed on 17 June to end the conflict, and Tehran intends to take ‘decisive measures to protect its interests and national security’. The Secretary-General of NATO, Mark Rutte, on the other hand, described the US action as necessary following what he described as Iran’s breach of the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Axios, citing a US administration official, has revealed that the go-ahead for the air strikes – described as more intense than those of recent weeks – was given by Trump himself following a meeting with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine. At this stage, the situation remains fluid, and Axios has also reported that the same official clarified that ‘it is not yet clear how long the attacks will continue’ and that Washington ‘will receive an assessment of the results of the raids’ before deciding on its next steps.

Following the news from the Strait, the price of crude oil reacted immediately, rising by more than 3 per cent. The rise subsequently levelled off, a sign that some investors still believe a resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran is possible.

Paradoxically, just the day before, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had painted a reassuring picture, revising its estimates for global oil production upwards to factor in the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and that maritime traffic would increase following the agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict. According to the July edition of the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report, global crude oil production and trade flows are expected to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of the year, whilst most of the production that remained halted during the crisis is expected to resume operations by the first quarter of 2027.