Orcel opens up Unicredit Ops premium, snatches up Commerzbank

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The words of UniCredit's CEO Andrea Orcel, who opens to a possible upward revision of the Ops premium on Commerzbank, give wings to the German bank on the Frankfurt stock exchange (DAX 30 ). The stock, which had been rising since the early stages, after the rises of the previous sessions, went above EUR 34 per share (against the EUR 30.8 put up by UniCredit), while the Italian bank also increased its early rises (FTSE MIB ). For the record, when Unicredit first entered Commerzbank's capital - it was September 2024 - the German institution's share was worth just over EUR 13.

To return to more recent times, Unicredit on Monday announced the launch of a voluntary public exchange offer for Commerzbank, aimed at exceeding the 30% threshold stipulated by German takeover bid regulations, as well as facilitating a cconstructive dialogue with Commerzbank and its main stakeholders in the coming weeks. The offer, the CEO of the German institution, Bettina Orlopp, had immediately commented, 'is not agreed' and 'the exchange envisaged in the announcement does not offer a premium for our shareholders'. Precisely on this point, Orcel opened the door to a revision: 'If we move from breaking the stalemate to having had a confrontation with a positive outcome, with support for a common vision, a common strategy, then surely we can revise the terms', improving the premium offered to shareholders. The main objective of the offer, in fact, 'is to break the deadlock. The situation of the last few months is not optimal for anyone and the only way to resolve the situation is a constructive face-to-face confrontation in which all parties put doubts and problems on the table and we try to solve them,' said Orcel, explaining that the offer 'is for 100 per cent and will be structured at the regulatory minimum price', with the aim of opening a 12-week window for dialogue and coming out with a shared vision and plan.

For Citi's analysts, "there are still significant hurdles to overcome for a full takeover of Commerzbank, given thewell-known opposition from the bank's management and the German government", with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hastening to emphasise that the issue "concerns the two stakeholders", but "the government's political view is clear: we want to maintain Commerzbank's independence". That said, Citi's experts added, 'we do not see aany downside risk for UniCredit, while technical buying opportunities are likely to arise again for Commerzbank in the market, which should support the stock'.