Forecasts

Orsini: 'Recession almost certain if the war in Iran continues until the end of the year'

The president of Confindustria also dwells on the hyper-amortisation: 'I hope that by early May we will have' the decree

by Rome Editorial Staff

22 April 2026

Orsini: tema è l'incertezza, per noi Golfo vale 32 mld interscambio

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Key points

Three scenarios
Orsini: "I am a convinced European"
"I hope hyper-amortisation decree in early May"

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

A recession 'almost certain' if the war in Iran continues throughout the year. This was said by the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini, on the sidelines of the event 'India-Italy: Business Partner, Brighter Future', organised by Sole 24 Ore and Banco Bpm.

Three scenarios

"If the war had ended quickly,' Orsini said, 'we would be at 0.5 per cent of GDP, if we continue like this for another three months we would be at zero, if we get to the end of the year, at the risk of recession we are almost certain to get there.

Three scenarios have already been presented by the Centro studi di Confindustria: in the worst, that of a war that goes on for the whole year, 10 months, GDP 2026 is seen in recession at - 0.7%; with 4 months of war, until June, it is estimated in stagnation, zero growth; with a stop to the war by March it would be "equal to +0.5%". The three scenarios, the Study Centre explained, 'do not contemplate desirable action at both European and Italia level to address a serious situation'.

Iran, Orsini: "Se la guerra arriva alla fine del 2026 è quasi certa la recessione"

Orsini: 'I am a convinced Europeanist'

'As industrialists,' Orsini said in this regard, 'we remain confident, companies get up in the morning with the confidence to make products that the whole world recognises as among the best. Europe is not helping us. After my statements a few days ago I was told that I am no longer pro-European, instead I am a convinced pro-European. I love this Europe and I want Europe to work and that's why I think it has to change pace'.

According to Orsini, 'unfortunately in Europe we are only referees with whistles, where we put rules and regulations. I believe that we have to reflect on this and that is why we are asking for it to be done quickly. That's why we are asking for quick answers, which unfortunately we still don't have today'.

"I hope for a hyper-amortisation decree in early May"

Regarding national economic policy, Orsini dwelt on the hyper-amortisation. Right now, 'more than credit to the company we need to ground investments, we are anxiously awaiting the decree on hyper-amortisation: until the decree comes out all companies are waiting to make new investments, of course, because there are concessions. I hope that in the first days of May we can have the decree telling us what the rules of engagement are, because without these our entrepreneurs are waiting,' Orsini said, explaining that 'we need to speed up this process because our companies want to invest. Then there would also be demand for credit'.